The Pattern of Meddling in 2016 US Elections
The US, as a highly digitalized state, depends on different social media platforms and cyber-connected networks for election campaigning, political discussions, forming popular opinions, and—in some cases—the voting process itself. Geostrategically motiva
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emocratic Vulnerability and Autocratic Meddling
Mika Aaltola
Democratic Vulnerability and Autocratic Meddling The “Thucydidean Brink” in Regressive Geopolitical Competition
Mika Aaltola The Finnish Institute of International Affairs Helsinki, Finland
ISBN 978-3-030-54601-4 ISBN 978-3-030-54602-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54602-1 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover image: © Alex Linch shutterstock.com This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1
Introduction Emerging Geo-Digital Power Practices The Thucydidean Brink and Regressive Coupling References
1 8 12 18
2
The Thucydidean Brink Back to the Thucydidean Basics From Democracy to Autocracy Thucydidean Model of Political Regression Classical Stages of Regressive Slide Modified Six-Stage Regression Scale References
21 25 29 32 40 48 58
3
Grim Pull of US Democratic Vulnerability Pull of US State Drama Magnetism of Drama Internally and Externally Modes of Regression and American Political Religion From Political Leaders to Influencers, Movers, and Shakers US Global Appeal and Status Re-evaluation References
61 64 76 80 85 88 91
v
vi
CONTENTS
4
Russian Cyber-Enabled Diversions in the West Geostrategic Transformation toward Domains Russia Showcasing Western Weakness Through Cyber Domain References
95 97 104 115
5
The Pattern of Meddling in 2016 US Elections The Hacking of the 2016 US Elections Destabilizing and Influencing Foreign Policy Debates Democratic Vulnerability References
117 118 124 126 128
6
Stages of Digitalized Regressive Meddling in Three Western Elections The Fi
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