The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations
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REVIEW ARTICLE
The State‑of‑the‑Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations Rafiq Hamdi1,3,5 · Hiroyuki Kusaka2 · Quang‑Van Doan2 · Peng Cai3 · Huili He3 · Geping Luo3 · Wenhui Kuang4 · Steven Caluwaerts1,5 · François Duchêne1 · Bert Van Schaeybroek1 · Piet Termonia1,5 Received: 22 July 2020 / Accepted: 19 November 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract As an effect of climate change, cities need detailed information on urban climates at decision scale that cannot be easily delivered using current observation networks, nor global and even regional climate models. A review is presented of the recent literature and recommendations are formulated for future work. In most cities, historical observational records are too short, discontinuous, or of too poor quality to support trend analysis and climate change attribution. For climate modeling, on the other hand, specific dynamical and thermal parameterization dedicated to the exchange of water and energy between the atmosphere and the urban surfaces have to be implemented. Therefore, to fully understand how cities are impacted by climate change, it is important to have (1) simulations of the urban climate at fine spatial scales (including coastal hazards for coastal cities) integrating global climate scenarios with urban expansion and population growth scenarios and their associated uncertainty estimates, (2) urban climate observations, especially in Global South cities, and (3) spatial data of high resolution on urban structure and form, human behavior, and energy consumption. Keywords Urban heat island · Urban climate · Urbanization · Climate change · Modeling · Monitoring network
1 Introduction Nowadays, 55% of the global population lives in urban areas (Seto et al. 2017). By 2050, it is projected that the urban population will be increased by more than 2.5 billion with an associated 70% increase in urbanization rate (Grimm et al. 2008; Seto et al. 2017; Kuang 2019a). Efforts towards environmental sustainability have to be, therefore, on the front line to improve the habitability in cities as well as to maintain a sustainable biodiversity in rural areas while promoting * Rafiq Hamdi [email protected] 1
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
2
Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
3
Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Wuxi, China
4
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
5
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
economic development. Urban areas are already vulnerable to heat wave episodes and floods, and the globally projected urban growth will increase their vulnerability (Rosenzweig et al. 2018). Urban citizens are exposed to additional heat stress due to the urban heat island with warmer near-surface air temperature in urban centers compared to the surrounding areas. As the urban dwellers are unable to recover from extreme temperature durin
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