Time series analysis of cow milk production at Andassa dairy farm, West Gojam Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
- PDF / 864,603 Bytes
- 9 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 110 Downloads / 246 Views
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Time series analysis of cow milk production at Andassa dairy farm, West Gojam Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia Birhan Ambachew Taye1 · Alemayehu Amsalu Alene1 · Ashenafi Kalayu Nega1 · Bantie Getnet Yirsaw1 Received: 16 March 2020 / Accepted: 20 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Milk production is an integral part of Andassa agricultural farming system, even though the area has potential for milk and dairy products, there is always a great demand for milk and milk products among people. However there are no long-term researches done on the area for forecasting the volume of milk production. Therefore this study was attempted to investigate the trends of actual yield of cow milk production and forecast the volume of milk. A time series study was conducted on the volume of cow’s milk production in Andassa dairy farm, and here we used secondary data for this study. The study employed inferential statistics for the purpose of hypothesis testing, estimating the trend, to fit the appropriate model and forecasting. A total of 179 days of milk production were included in this study, and the results showed that the trend of milk yield of caws is decreasing and it is time dependent. The model that has been selected for forecasting volume of milk production is ARIMA (1, 2, 1) since the model was found to be a better model. Keywords Milk production · Forecasting · Time series analysis · Ethiopia · Andasa
Background Milk is used to hydrating dairy products such as butter, cheese and milk powered. There is always a great demand for milk and milk products among people. Most countries to fulfill the needs of the people expands their production system and techniques to increase the supply of milk production (Haenlein and Wendorff 2006). A number of technological innovations now permit automated daily monitoring of cow performance. So use of automated milk yield recording systems for early detection of diseases requires a statistical model to forecast expect performance and to compare forecast and actual performance. Previous researches on modeling milk production in cows had focused on fitting linear or * Birhan Ambachew Taye [email protected] Alemayehu Amsalu Alene [email protected] Ashenafi Kalayu Nega [email protected]
nonlinear deterministic models to daily, weekly, or monthly milk measurements from lactations sing either partial or complete lactation data sets (Jacobs and Siegford 2012). It is essential that researchers and dairy development agents have to understand the existing situations, to design relevant development strategies that to the area (Tassew and Seifu 2009). Hence, milk production is an integral part of Andassa agricultural farming system, and the area has favorable climate and potential for milk and dairy products, so the level of its milk production is low when compared to some dairy sectors of tropical countries. So to design relevant development strategies that appropriate to the area, it is essential that to have in-depth understanding about the past behavior of
Data Loading...
