Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Beh
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Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling Abbas Mirzaei 1 & Mansour Zibaei 2 Received: 23 April 2020 / Accepted: 26 October 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Water resources at the basin level are affected by climate change in the form of available water scarcity and multiple droughts leading to conflicts among different water users, especially between the agricultural sector and wetland services. However, owing to the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of water management and climate change, it is needed to integrate tools to analyze impacts and adaptation. Accordingly, the current study presents an economic-hydrological-behavioral modeling to evaluate potential effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on irrigated agriculture and to manage water resources conflicts among different water users and uses in basins. This model has an iterative framework between a farm-based multi-objectives optimization model, a water evaluating and planning model (WEAP), and an agent-based model, which can represent socio-economic, hydrologic, agronomic and behavioral systems covering all dimensions and scales related to climate change. For this purpose, the economichydrological-behavioral modelling was applied in a case study in the Halilrud Basin in Kerman Province, Iran. Results revealed that adoption of suitable adaptive strategies and measures could mitigate the effects of climate change and provide more water to restore the Jazmourian Wetland in this basin. Additionally, the results indicated that different forms of rigidity in the individual behavior of farmers slowed down the adaptation of the agricultural sector, so that implementation of adaptive strategies led to only 14% less water consumption. Keywords Wetland . Climate change . Adaptation strategies . Economic-hydrological-behavioral modelling
* Abbas Mirzaei [email protected] Mansour Zibaei [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Mirzaei A., Zibaei M.
1 Introduction Wetlands as part of the basin area play important hydrological and ecological roles (McLaughlin and Cohen 2013; Meng et al. 2019). In addition, they have a useful function on the water cycle at the basin level (Liu et al. 2016; Meng et al. 2019). Therefore, the analysis of water resources of wetlands at the basin level is crucial (Li et al. 2016; Meng et al. 2019). Important global challenges include climate change and loss of biodiversity (IPCC 2014), which may increase the risks of loss of wetland ecosystem services (Li et al. 2015). Furthermore, water shortage or insufficient water is one of the main reasons of wetland loss worldwide (Mitsch and Gosselink 2007). A study of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, FAO, International Water Management Institute (2014) found that more than 50% of the world’s wetlands were endangered by agriculture. Over the past years, agriculture was converted as a dominant part of water and land all
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