When Do Offenders Commit Crime? An Analysis of Temporal Consistency in Individual Offending Patterns
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When Do Offenders Commit Crime? An Analysis of Temporal Consistency in Individual Offending Patterns Sabine E. M. van Sleeuwen1,2 · Wouter Steenbeek2 · Stijn Ruiter1,2
© The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Objectives Building on Hägerstrand’s time geography, we expect temporal consistency in individual offending behavior. We hypothesize that repeat offenders commit offenses at similar times of day and week. In addition, we expect stronger temporal consistency for crimes of the same type and for crimes committed within a shorter time span. Method We use police-recorded crime data on 28,274 repeat offenders who committed 152,180 offenses between 1996 and 2009 in the greater The Hague area in the Netherlands. We use a Monte Carlo permutation procedure to compare the overall level of temporal consistency observed in the data to the temporal consistency that is to be expected given the overall temporal distribution of crime. Results Repeat offenders show strong temporal consistency: they commit their crimes at more similar hours of day and week than expected. Moreover, the observed temporal consistency patterns are indeed stronger for offenses of the same type of crime and when less time has elapsed between the offenses, especially for offenses committed within a month after the prior offense. Discussion The results are consistent with offenders having recurring rhythms that shape their temporal crime pattern. These findings might prove valuable for improving predictive policing methods and crime linkage analysis as well as interventions to reduce recidivism. Keywords Repeat offenders · Temporal consistency · Hour of day · Hour of week · Monte Carlo permutation
Introduction Why do offenders commit crime at certain times and places instead of others? Crime pattern theory (Brantingham and Brantingham 2008) posits that offenders should have very consistent spatial decision-making behavior. Offenders commit crime in places where their spatial awareness—their knowledge of the environment as acquired while traveling * Sabine E. M. van Sleeuwen [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Padualaan 14, 3584 CH Utrecht, The Netherlands
2
Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), P. O. Box 71304, 1008 BH Amsterdam, The Netherlands
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
between the places they routinely visit such as their home, work, and leisure activities— overlaps with the spatial distribution of criminal opportunities. Because offenders’ awareness spaces and the spatial distribution of attractive targets remain relatively stable over time, offenders are likely to repeatedly commit crime at similar locations: those with the highest utility—perceived benefits minus perceived costs—of which they are aware. A burgeoning body of empirical research has indeed shown that offenders are very consistent in where they commit offenses. Building on crime pattern theory, previous studies have shown that characteristics of offende
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