Quantifying the drivers of urban expansion in Nepal
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Quantifying the drivers of urban expansion in Nepal Sushila Rijal & Bhagawat Rimal & Nigel Stork & Hari Prasad Sharma
Received: 16 April 2020 / Accepted: 9 August 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The Tarai region of Nepal is regarded as the food bowl of Nepal, and yet urban areas have increased in size at an average annual rate of 12% for the 30 years since 1988/1989, largely at the expense of prime agricultural land. Nepal is recognized internationally as highly sensitive to food security with 40% of its Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08544-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. S. Rijal Department of Environmental Management, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Thailand e-mail: [email protected] B. Rimal College of Applied Sciences, (CAS)-Nepal, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal B. Rimal (*) The State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] N. Stork Environmental Futures Research Institute and School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan Campus, Brisbane, Australia e-mail: [email protected] H. P. Sharma Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal e-mail: [email protected]
population undernourished. To aid future planning and reduce potential further loss of agricultural land and consequent increased food insecurity, we here investigated the previously unknown factors underlying this rapid urban expansion. We achieved this through analyses of land use and land cover (LULC) data, population, and climatic data, in association with focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. We found that socioeconomic factors were perceived to have made the highest (62%) contribution to urbanization, particularly migration-led population growth and the economic opportunities offered by urban areas, followed by political factors (14.5%), physical factors (12%), and planning and policy factors (11.5%). In addition, climate and physiographic features make the area attractive for urban development along with favorable government plans and policies. Accelerated urban expansion during this period was particularly driven by mass migration due to political upheaval in the country resulting in rapid population and urban center growth. Of the total 293 urban centers in the country, the Tarai region includes 150 (51.2%) of which 77 (26.3%) are located in province 2 alone and accommodate 17.2% of Nepal’s households. This increasing urbanization trend is expected to continue in the future due to current socioeconomic and demographic factors. We hope our results which show what has driven past urbanization will aid future urban planning and management of the Tarai as well as other similar regions elsewhere in the world. We also iden
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