Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Problems, Possibilities and Proposed Solutions
The paper describes the objectives and the state of the art of real-time flood forecasting by discussing the problems and the possibilities offered by the presently available measurement and modelling systems. In addition the paper shows the need for a De
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Real-Time Flood Forecasting: Problems, Possibilities and Proposed Solutions Ezro
TODINI
University of Bologna, Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences, Via Zamboni, 67, 40127 Bologna, Italy, E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
215
The Flooding Problem
215
2
Precipitation Data Acquisition Systems
3
The Predictability of Hydro-meteorological Events 218 The Predictability of Flood Events 218 Predictability Horizon and Operational Requirements 219
3.1 3.2
216
4
Extending Flood Forecast to Smaller Size Rivers: The Link to Limited Area Atmospheric Models 223
5
The Need for a Flood Planning and Management DSS 226 The need for holistic flood management 227 Pre-flood activities include 227 Operational flood management can be considered as a sequence of four activities 227 Depending upon the severity of the event, the post-flood activities may include 227
6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4
Aims and Structure of FLOODSS 228 Requirements of the Operational Real Time Forecasting Component 229 The Flood Planning and Management DSS 230 Flood Planning Tools 231 Flood Plain Inundation Models 232
7
Conclusions References
237 239
Abstract The paper describes the objectives and the state of the art of real-time flood forecasting by discussing the problems and the possibilities offered by the presently available measurement and modelling systems. In addition the paper shows the need for a Decision Support System (DSS) for Inundation Risk Evaluation and Emergencies Management from the emerging requirements for a holistic approach to flood management, recently advocated at national and EU levels. As a logical consequence, the paper proposes the development of FLOODSS, a
DSS responding to the need of an integrated tool for planning and management that, taking advantage of available High Performance Computer platforms, allows ( 1) to locate areas at risk and to estimate expected damages; (2) to forecast floods and inundation phenomena on the basis of real-time analysis of the present meteorological situation and of forecasts available at different time and space scales; (3) to evaluate the effects of decisions aimed at reducing social, economical and environmental damages on the basis of planned or real-time forecasted scenarios and (4) the continuous training of personnel.
1 The Flooding Problem The problem of flooding is as old as time. However, while natural flooding of large areas did not create situations more dangerous than others in a prehistoric world, the expansion of human activity and cities has made the preven-
tion of damage caused by floods or harnessing
over-bank flows for one's own purposes as in ancient Egypt a necessity that remains vital to this day. From the end of the eighteenth century onwards, with the advent of the industrial age, there have been two courses of action: hydraulic works on the territory, such as land reclamation works, which in many cases upset a land's balance dependent on overflow, and the channelling of watercourses, especially in mountain and foothill sections, with the res
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