Regional dynamics in distribution of Prosopis juliflora under predicted climate change in Africa
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Tropical Ecology https://doi.org/10.1007/s42965-020-00101-w
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Regional dynamics in distribution of Prosopis juliflora under predicted climate change in Africa Dejene W. Sintayehu1 · Anthony Egeru2,3 · Wai‐Tim Ng4 · Elias Cherenet5 Received: 22 May 2020 / Revised: 16 August 2020 / Accepted: 18 August 2020 © International Society for Tropical Ecology 2020
Abstract Climate change is considered to be one of a principle reason for spread of invasive alien species. Thus, it is essential to examine potential invasion dynamics of Prosopis juliflora at continental scale under climate change scenario to better guide management of the invasive species. A consensus model derived from five models were used to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for P. juliflora under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Africa. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the threshold-dependent true skill statistic (TSS) value of the models were 0.85 and 0.94, respectively, this put the models in the “very good” category. Results showed that temperature related variables were the main determinant factor accounting for 65.7% of the distribution of P. juliflora. Under current climatic scenario, 75.6% of the continent was unsuitable for P. juliflora establishment and invasion while 5.6% was highly suitable. The total suitable areas for P. juliflora under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would increase by 2050 and 2070 compared to the current conditions. Meanwhile, a decrease in total unsuitable areas would be expected by 2050 and 2070 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This study has revealed that; the rates of P. juliflora invasion will expand further inland across Africa as climatic conditions become favourable. Negative environmental and economic impacts caused by P. juliflora will be high if management measures are not earnestly taken. We recommend for a cross-border continental wide effort towards combating P. juliflora expansion to new areas, especially in countries predicted as frontiers of potential expansion. Keywords Climate suitability · Conservation planning · Management of invasive species · Prosopis juliflora · SDM
Introduction Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s42965-020-00101-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Dejene W. Sintayehu [email protected] 1
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 282, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
2
Department of Environmental Management, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
3
Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture, Wandegeya, P.O. Box 16811, Kampala, Uganda
4
Earth Observation Data Centre (EODC) for Water Resources Monitoring GmbH Franz-Grill-Straße 9, 1030 Vienna, Austria
5
School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
Invasive species are
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