Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California
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Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California Eva Benavides . Aurora Breceda
. Jose´ D. Anado´n
Received: 9 September 2019 / Accepted: 22 September 2020 Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The Cactaceae is considered one of the most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent to which climate change could compromise the conservation status of this group has rarely been investigated. The present study advances this issue under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti species in the Baja California Peninsula (n = 40), (2) to study how the impact of climate change is distributed in this group according to the species’ conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these impacts are organized from a biogeographical and functional perspective. We addressed these objectives under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration Communicated by Hsiao-Hsuan Wang.
scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migration. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission pathways under the two extreme migration scenarios show consistency regarding the identity of the species most vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant future scenario that has, on one hand, species with large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on the other, species with large habitat reductions (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspecific levels in the study area, since the total number of threatened species in the future might largely increase.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-020-01085-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Keywords Species traits Endangered cacti Growth form Sonoran Desert Mexico
E. Benavides A. Breceda (&) Centro de Investigaciones Biolo´gicas del Noroeste SC, Av. Instituto Polite´cnico Nacional, Playa Palo de Santa Rita Sur, 23096 La Paz, B.C.S, Mexico e-mail: [email protected]
J. D. Anado´n Biology Program, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY 10016, USA
J. D. Anado´n Department of Biology, Queens College, City University of New York, Queens, NY 11367, USA
Present Address: J. D. Anado´n Department of Agricultural Sciences and the Environment, University of Zaragoza, 22071 Huesca, Spain
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Plant Ecol
Introduction The Cactaceae family, probably the most representative group of plants of the arid and semiarid systems of the Americas, is the fifth most globally threatened taxon assessed to date (Santos-Dı´az et al. 2010; Goettsch et al
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