Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections
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Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections J. L. Garrido1 · J. F. González‑Rouco2 · M. G. Vivanco1 · J. Navarro1 Received: 5 September 2019 / Accepted: 3 September 2020 / Published online: 17 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the added value of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches 6 ◦ C and 3 ◦ C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Keywords Climate change · Regional climate models · Temperature · Climate projections · Iberian Peninsula
1 Introduction Climate conditions are expected to change substantially in the coming decades. Projections discussed in the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Stocker et al. 2013) show estimations that indicate a remarkable warming of the Earth system with significant changes in hydroclimate, sea level and other important climate parameters. In particular, the Iberian Peninsula (IP), as part of the Mediterranean Region, has been pointed out as one of the hot-spots of climate change where a substantial warming and drying, as well as an increase in the occurrence of extreme summer heat and drought events, is projected (Giorgi 2006; * J. L. Garrido [email protected] 1
Research Center for Energy, Environment and Technology, CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, Edificio 70, Madrid, Spain
Dpto. Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM‑CSIC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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Giorgi and Lionello 2008). Projections of regional surface air temperature and precipitation anticipate clear impacts on many sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, health or water management for the end of the 21st century (Giorgi et al. 2004; Field 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). These impacts will be produced by increas
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