Research and Design of Vegetable Price Spatial-Temporal Transmission Simulation
To explore vegetable price space, time transmission mechanism and to simulate, which is important to reveal vegetable price fluctuation and slow down vegetable price ups and downs substantially. The paper takes six vegetables’ price as example, and select
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Research and Design of Vegetable Price Spatial-Temporal Transmission Simulation Fan-tao Kong, Li-yuan Xin, Dong-jie Wang, and Chao Zhang
Abstract To explore vegetable price space, time transmission mechanism and to simulate, which is important to reveal vegetable price fluctuation and slow down vegetable price ups and downs substantially. The paper takes six vegetables’ price as example, and selects 108 field markets, wholesale markets and retail markets that scatter Beijing, Shandong and Hainan etc., and collects price data every day, and establishes spatial-temporal set of vegetable price. The paper using factor analysis method explores the reason, character and influencing factors of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission, and finds mechanism and constructs network topology. The paper, using correlation test, cointegration test, partial adjustment model, Granger causality test and finite distributed lag model and etc., analyses relation, route and strength of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission, and constructs its model. The paper develops real-time dynamic simulation and display by component technology and GIS analysis. To clarify multidimensional dynamic conduction mode of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission by regions, markets and varieties, in order to promote vegetable produce, ensure market supply and stable vegetable price.
Project Support: “Twelfth Five-Year plan” Science and technology support program “The key technology research and demonstration of management and information service matching of agricultural production and market circulation” (Project number:2012BAH20B04), 2013 Ministry of Agriculture, Agriculture monitoring and early warning information system project. F.-t. Kong • L.-y. Xin (*) • D.-j. Wang • C. Zhang Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 10081, China Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 10081, China e-mail: [email protected] S. Xu (ed.), Proceedings of 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-54389-0_6, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
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Keywords Vegetable • Price • Spatial-temporal transmission • Simulation • Research and design
6.1
Backgrounds
Vegetables are the necessities of life, and its price directly influences the income of farmers and the consumption of residents. The supply and consumption of vegetable is an important part of people’s livelihood, and its fluctuation is livelihood barometer to some extent. Vegetable price fluctuation has become one hot topic of the society. In recent years, due to various uncertainties increasing, vegetable price ups and downs substantially (Kong et al. 2002), to farmers to sell vegetable cheaply, yet to residents to buy vegetable expensively, garlic’s and ginger’s price are very high, which reflect vegetable market vibrating severely. National leaders always pay attention to vegetable price. On 29th Dec, 2010, General Secretary Hu Jintao inspected veget
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