Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model for Vegetable Price in Hainan
Hainan is the national people’s “Vegetable Basket” in winter. It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable market price in Hainan for farmers cultivating “vegetable garden” good and government holding “vegetable basket” steady. The theory o
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Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model for Vegetable Price in Hainan Lu Ye, Yuping Li, Yanqun Liu, Xiaoli Qin, and Weihong Liang
Abstract Hainan is the national people’s “Vegetable Basket” in winter. It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable market price in Hainan for farmers cultivating “vegetable garden” good and government holding “vegetable basket” steady. The theory of combination forecasting is practicable in complex economic system. In view of complexity of vegetable market system, by using the data of vegetable market price in Hainan, three models are set up separately which are Triple exponential smoothing model, simple linear regression model, and grey forecasting model. Then, an optimal combination forecasting model is constructed based on three models above. The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the optimal combination forecasting model is superior to the single model, and the model overcomes limitation of the single model and effectively improves the prediction results of vegetable market price. Keywords Vegetable price • Triple exponential smoothing model • Simple linear regression model • Grey forecasting model • Optimal combination forecasting model
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Introduction
Hainan province lies to the northern edge of tropic, becoming the national people’s “Vegetable Basket” in winter with unique region and climate. Hainan vegetable cultivation is dominated by winter vegetable, which covers about 20 million hm2,
Major project of science and technology of Hainan (ZDXM20110075) Project of agro-technology extension of Ministry of Agriculture of PRC (13RZNJ-32) L. Ye • Y. Li (*) • Y. Liu • X. Qin • W. Liang Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS, Key Lab of Tropical Crops Information Technology Application Research of Hainan Province, Hainan Danzhou 571737, China e-mail: [email protected] S. Xu (ed.), Proceedings of 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-54389-0_5, © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
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whose amount being transported out of Hainan Island increases year by year, and amount of fruit and vegetable out of Hainan Island is 570 million ton in 2011; perennial vegetable covers 5333 hm2, in summer and autumn people’s demand of vegetable on the island mainly depend on places out of Hainan Island. Local vegetables after 3–4 links, and vegetables bought out of the island appear in the market generally after 5–6 links, so the retail price is usually 3–5 times higher than the purchase price. Under the present situation of small production scale, scattered production link and backward circulation mode, the phenomenon of cheap vegetable hurting farmers or expensive vegetable hurting citizens repeatedly appear on account of asymmetrical production and marketing information. Vegetable growers don’t have scientific planting plan and usually plant following suit, leading to high yield but no harvest. Especially in 2012, a mild winter, some vegetable prices are low even going bad in the s
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