Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development
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Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development Francesco Parola1 · Giovanni Satta1 · Theo Notteboom2,3,4,5 · Luca Persico1 Accepted: 19 September 2020 © Springer Nature Limited 2020
Abstract This paper contributes to the extant debate on port planning and development by analysing current approaches and challenges for academics and port authorities with respect to traffic forecasting. First, we examine how academics approach traffic forecasting in ports based on an extensive literature review. Next, using a sample of 28 core ports in the European Union, we provide empirical evidence on traffic forecasting challenges for, and approaches by, port authorities. Our findings are discussed by focussing on five themes, i.e. formalized planning versus ad hoc investment decisions, the types and time horizons of port planning documents, forecasting methods and data sources, attitudes towards the disclosure of traffic forecasts and methods, and institutional issues affecting traffic forecasting exercises. Keywords Forecasting · Strategic planning · Investment decisions · Port authority
1 Introduction Seaports are economic assets and value-adding logistics nodes. Port planning and development face unprecedented managerial challenges, given the structural changes and trends in international trade and global supply chains, and the disruptive effects of economic shocks caused by financial, political, global health and environmental crises. The highly dynamic external environment in which ports operate demands * Theo Notteboom [email protected] 1
Department of Business Studies and Italian Centre of Excellence in Logistics, Transport and Infrastructures, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
2
China Institute of FTZ Supply Chain, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue, Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China
3
Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
4
Maritime Institute, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
5
Antwerp Maritime Academy, Antwerp, Belgium
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an increased focus on resilience, agility and flexibility (Paixao and Marlow 2003; Vonck and Notteboom 2016; Notteboom and Haralambides 2020). This, in turn, imposes a growing attention from port managers on the analysis of future market trends and forecasting techniques. Port planning and development processes, in fact, require pro-active understanding of all tendencies and interrelationships in trade, maritime transport and logistics, as well as of the strategies and requirements of relevant port stakeholders (Parola and Maugeri 2013). The above tendencies and relationships have affected cargo volumes handled in ports. Over the past two decades, academics and practitioners have paid attention to the study of traffic forecasting in ports. Traffic forecasting exercises can provide port authorities (PAs) and port-related stakeholders with useful and necessary information in view of port project-related decision-making and broader port
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