Robust post-disaster route restoration
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Robust post‑disaster route restoration Aakil M. Caunhye1 · Nazli Yonca Aydin2 · H. Sebnem Duzgun3 Received: 5 September 2019 / Accepted: 5 August 2020 / Published online: 17 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Route restoration is considered to be a task of foremost priority in disaster relief. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for post-disaster route restoration under uncertain restoration times. We present a novel decision rule based on restoration time ordering that yields optimal restoration sequencing and propose conditions for complexity reduction in the model and prove probability bounds on the satisfaction of these conditions. We implement our models in a realistic study of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Keywords Route restoration · Robust optimization · Decision rules · Disaster relief
1 Introduction In recent years, the increasing intensity and duration of natural disasters have made it primordial for decision-makers, stakeholders and communities to enhance the safety and security of critical infrastructure systems during and after disruptions. Typically disaster-prone critical infrastructure systems, road networks spatially connect one location to another and are enablers of disaster relief by providing accessibility to shelters, hospitals, emergency management centres and so on. These networks are complex and it is a challenge of utmost importance in disaster response for decision-makers to rebuild their functionalities to acceptable limits. * Aakil M. Caunhye [email protected] Nazli Yonca Aydin [email protected] H. Sebnem Duzgun [email protected] 1
University of Edinburgh Business School, 29 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9JS, UK
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Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Gebouw 31, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
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Department of Mining Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois Str., Golden 80401, USA
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Previous events have shown the consequences of natural disasters on road networks. In the aftermath of the 1994 Northridge earthquake four freeway routes were closed due to failures. It is estimated that one fifth of the $6.5 billion total loss in regional economic activity caused by the earthquake could be attributed to transportation disruptions alone (Gordon et al. 1998). In the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, significant damages to the Hanshin Expressway reduced traffic volumes to 30–55% of pre-earthquake levels, severely impacting disaster relief activities (Chang and Nojima 2001). Following the Haiti earthquake in 2010, relief distribution proved almost impossible, despite the abundance of supplies, due to road infrastructure damages (Çelik 2016). More recently, the 2015 earthquake in Gorkha, Nepal, where the earthquake and a major aftershock triggered landslides around the steep and mountainous regions of Nepal, blocked important road segments, preventing relief supplies from reaching communities (Collins and Jibson 2015). Due to these
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