Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering

The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, ba

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Springer Optimization and Its Applications VOLUME 20 Managing Editor Panos M. Pardalos (University of Florida) Editor—Combinatorial Optimization Ding-Zhu Du (University of Texas at Dallas) Advisory Board J. Birge (University of Chicago) C.A. Floudas (Princeton University) F. Giannessi (University of Pisa) H.D. Sherali (Virginia Polytechnic and State University) T. Terlaky (McMaster University) Y. Ye (Stanford University)

Aims and Scope Optimization has been expanding in all directions at an astonishing rate during the last few decades. New algorithmic and theoretical techniques have been developed, the diffusion into other disciplines has proceeded at a rapid pace, and our knowledge of all aspects of the field has grown even more profound. At the same time, one of the most striking trends in optimization is the constantly increasing emphasis on the interdisciplinary nature of the field. Optimization has been a basic tool in all areas of applied mathematics, engineering, medicine, economics and other sciences. The Springer Optimization and Its Applications series publishes undergraduate and graduate textbooks, monographs and state-of-the-art expository works that focus on algorithms for solving optimization problems and also study applications involving such problems. Some of the topics covered include nonlinear optimization (convex and nonconvex), network flow problems, stochastic optimization, optimal control, discrete optimization, multiobjective programming, description of software packages, approximation techniques and heuristic approaches.

Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering Second Edition

By EVGUENI D. SOLOJENTSEV Russia Academy of Sciences, Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Petersburg, Russia

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Evgueni D. Solojentsev Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of Russian Academy of Sciences V. O. Bolshoy pr, 61 St-Petersburg, 199178, Russia [email protected]

ISSN: 1931-6828 ISBN: 978-0-387-77945-4 DOI 10.1007/978-0-387-77946-1

e-ISBN: 978-0-387-77946-1

Library of Congress Control Number: 2008938965 Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): (Primary) 6502, 65F10, 65N22, 65N55; (Secondary) 65F50, 65N30, 65Y20, 65H1 The first edition of this book appeared in 2004, published by Kluwer Academic Publishers as Volume 93 in the Applied Optimization Series. c Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2005, 2009  All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression