Scenario Planning and Modelling
The models tested for building up confidence (as discussed in Chap. 6 ) should be used for scenario planning and modelling. This chapter presents scenario planning and modelling. Participatory system dynamics modelling and scenario planning are broadly d
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Scenario Planning and Modelling
The models tested for building up confidence (as discussed in Chap. 6) should be used for scenario planning and modelling. This chapter presents scenario planning and modelling. Participatory system dynamics modelling and scenario planning are broadly discussed and the steps in scenario planning are highlighted. Also, policy planning for development strategy and implementation of development strategy and modelling are discussed. Some examples of scenario planning and modelling are presented.
7.1
Introduction
Once the model has been validated, the next steps are policy design and evaluation. Policy design includes management strategies and different policy options for improvement of the system performances. Policy design must involve all the stakeholders of the system being modelled not only in the simulation at the final stage but also during the development of the model. This will assist in minimising the gap between the model builders and the stakeholders. Also, this will make the stakeholders feel to be part of policy design using computer models. Scenario planning is an approach for exploring the different possible futures and it relies on an understanding of today to explore what might happen in the future. This methodology also includes both simulation using system dynamics model and conversations with stakeholders related to scenario planning. It is to be noted that system dynamics is an approach for exploring the current structure of a system and the reasons for its behaviour, while scenario planning methodology generates scenarios as the solution derived from the simulation results of the system dynamics model.
# Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 B.K. Bala et al., System Dynamics, Springer Texts in Business and Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2045-2_7
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7.2
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Scenario Planning and Modelling
Scenario Planning and Modelling
Scenarios are descriptions of different possible futures and scenario planning is an approach designed to develop scenarios. It considers the decision-maker’s current mental models and aims to question their assumptions and their model’s limitations. The aim of scenario planning and scenarios is to change the mental models of decision-makers to consider new possibilities and create common language and common mental models from which to begin discussing strategic options (Featherston and Doolan 2013). Commonly cited requirements of scenarios are that they be believable, reasonable and realistic. The difference between scenario planning and system dynamics is the different time frames upon which they focus. System dynamics focuses on present systems and the reasons for their behaviour, whereas scenario planning focuses on what may happen in the future, often between 5 and 25 years. However, scenario planning relies on an understanding of today in order to be able to map out the space into which the future might fall. Furthermore, system dynamics and scenario planning are not static approaches; as a system might evolve, they c
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