Scenarios: Driving forces and policies

Modelling the impact of policies is possible only if these policies themselves are defined to some extent. Therefore, potential policies affecting multifunctional land use are grouped into policy cases around a number of central themes. However, a counter

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Katharina Helming Marta Pérez-Soba Paul Tabbush (Editors)

Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes

With 72 Figures, 55 in colour

Dr. Katharina Helming Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) Eberswalder Str. 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany E-Mail: [email protected] Dr. Marta Pérez-Soba ALTERRA Wageningen UR, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands E-Mail: [email protected] Mr. Paul Tabbush Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham Surrey, UK, GU10 4LH United Kingdom E-Mail: [email protected]

Cover source: Spatial Regional Reference Framework © Renetzeder, Ch.; Eupen, M. van; Mücher C.A.; Wrbka, T. 2007 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008923272 ISBN

978-3-540-78647-4 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media Springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: deblik, Berlin Typesetting: camera-ready by the editors Production: Agata Oelschläger Printed on acid-free paper

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Foreword

There are many reasons why strategic intelligence is required to support policy decisions. These primarily stem from the nature of today's knowledge society with two contrasting trends. On the one hand, there is a trend of increasing human intelligence in the economic, social and political systems. On the other hand, there is a trend towards dissolving certainties about the problems and solutions of today's society. Clearly, more information does not necessary imply more certainties on how to act. What is more, the same facts are often interpreted in markedly different ways: the same policy relevant information can – and often does – results in conflicting framing of a problem by different stakeholders. This is mainly due to competing assumptions, rather then because of inconsistent facts. Therefore, it is not surprising that policy-makers are calling for strategic intelligence to support their understanding of today's challenges, including the relevant aspects of science and technology, their impact and their possible future developments. Over the last 15 years, Europe has rapidly adopted the practice of developing and using Impac