Seasonal ground level ozone prediction using multiple linear regression (MLR) model
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Seasonal ground level ozone prediction using multiple linear regression (MLR) model Sarat Kumar Allu1,2 · Shailaja Srinivasan2 · Rama Krishna Maddala2 · Aparna Reddy1,2 · Gangagni Rao Anupoju1,2 Received: 18 March 2020 / Accepted: 4 May 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract To assess the surface ozone concentration ( O3), there is a need to establish relationship between air pollutants and meteorological parameters. The study was conducted on variation of air pollutants, viz. O 3, nitrogen oxides ( NOX = NO2 + NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) along with meteorological parameters like temperature (Temp), relative humidity (RH), solar radiation (SR) and wind speed (WS). The precursor gases were recorded in Hyderabad at Tata Institute of Fundamental Research-National Balloon Facility (TIFR-NBF; 17.47° N, 78.58° E). Correlation analysis is done on hourly averaged trace gases concentration and metrological data for the entire year 2016. O3 is in negative correlation with NOX, CO and RH. NOX which is one of the precursor gases plays a major role in formation of O3 by photo-chemical reaction (PCR). The increase in O3 concentration is in proportion with the decrease in NOX concentration. O3 correlated positively with Temp, SR and WS. Two sets of four models were constructed with multiple linear regression (MLR) representing the data for the three seasons (summer, winter and monsoon) and for the total year as well. The adjusted R2 was determined and found to be in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 for the models using precursor gases and 0.9 by meteorological parameters. The models were validated by various performance indicators, viz. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean biased error (MBE). Keywords Ozone · Precursor gases · Meteorological parameters · Multiple linear regression · Seasons
Introduction Trace gases like nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) derived from combustion of fossil fuels are continuously rising near the earth surface, resulting in changes in atmospheric compositions. The decrease in the atmospheric air quality is a consequence of accumulation, dispersion and transformation of these air pollutants (Mazzeo et al. 2005). Surface ozone ( O 3) is a secondary air pollutant which is not emitted directly by any natural sources. O 3 is formed by various complex molecule reactions with atmospheric precursors (Shavrina et al. 2010). The formation of surface O3 * Gangagni Rao Anupoju [email protected] 1
Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), New Delhi, India
Department of Energy and Environmental Engineering, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, India
2
mechanism is not identical everywhere and depends on relationships among emission sources, geographic location and meteorological factors over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales (Lin et al. 2007). High level of O3 in the atmosphere can damage plant species, various natural materials
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