Simulating Species Dominance in Mixed Mangrove Forests Considering Species-Specific Responses to Shading, Salinity, and
To ensure that mangrove forest conservation efforts are successful, simulation models of mangrove forests are developed to forecast outcomes of different environmental scenarios. This paper presents MaDS (Mangrove species Dominance Simulator), an agent-ba
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and Ariel Blanco
University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines {icestacio,acblanco}@up.edu.ph
Abstract. To ensure that mangrove forest conservation efforts are successful, simulation models of mangrove forests are developed to forecast outcomes of different environmental scenarios. This paper presents MaDS (Mangrove species Dominance Simulator), an agent-based model that simulates the structures of mixed mangrove forest stands by considering specific responses of mangrove species to shading, salinity, and inundation frequencies. By simulating certain inundation and salinity conditions in a 50 m × 50 m plot, the model forecasts the resulting dominance of different mangrove species. The model uses different species-specific parameters for differentiating responses to environmental factors. The model was validated by conducting an experiment where different test sites in Katunggan It-Ibajay (KII) Eco-park, Aklan, Philippines were simulated given actual site salinity and inundation frequency values to see if simulated species dominance matched actual site species dominance. The validation experiment showed simulated dominant species matched with dominant species in the sites given that different groups of species are tested. An experiment on species abundance at different combinations of salinity and inundation frequency values was also conducted. Results of the simulations imply that observed zonation in mangrove forests is not only caused by the environmental conditions in the site but also by the number and characteristics of species in the site. Keyword: Agent-based modeling · Geographic information science · Environmental modeling · Forest stand
1 Introduction Mangroves, along with seagrasses and wetlands, are classified by the International Group of Experts on Blue Carbon (IGEBC) as a blue carbon ecosystem. These blue carbon ecosystems are far more effective in storing carbon in the atmosphere than terrestrial ecosystems, even storing up to 100 times faster and more permanently [1]. In the current times where anthropogenic global warming is increasing due to anthropogenic causes [2], blue carbon ecosystems need to be conserved in a strategic and science-based method. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. S. Obaidat et al. (Eds.): SIMULTECH 2019, AISC 1260, pp. 167–183, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55867-3_9
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I. Estacio and A. Blanco
Fig. 1. Sample of a mangrove zonation pattern observed in mangrove forests. The figure is from Smith [3].
A problem encountered in conservation of mangrove forests is the lack of knowledge in species zonation, where species tend to group themselves in different parts of the mangrove forest (see Fig. 1). Species zonation patterns occur at different geographic scale such as the estuarine location and intertidal position [3]. Zonation patterns are mainly explained by the spatially-varying conditions throughout the forest, hence species observed in a particular site reflect the conditions in the site. In general, the main environmental drivers th
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