Socio-technical scenarios for energy-intensive industries: the future of steel production in Germany
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Socio-technical scenarios for energy-intensive industries: the future of steel production in Germany Stefan Vögele 1
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& Dirk Rübbelke & Kristina Govorukha & Matthias Grajewski
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Received: 13 June 2017 / Accepted: 9 January 2019/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract Relocating energy-intensive industries to another country may help to meet national greenhouse gas reduction targets. However, this can lead to rising global emissions if production in the country that receives the shifted industries is associated with higher specific emissions (Bcarbon leakage^). The relocation of industries and thus the possible emergence of carbon leakage depends largely on cost advantages in the country of destination and the level of transport costs. In this study, we consider the example of relocations in the iron and steel industries of China and Germany in order to ascertain effects on CO2-emissions. We develop different scenarios for 2030 using a multilevel cross-impactbalance (CIB) approach and analyse these scenarios in a technology-based cost model. Since all scenarios show high specific cost for reducing global CO2-emissions by preferring crude steel produced in Germany to steel from China, we conclude that avoiding carbon leakage is not necessarily a cost-efficient measure for reducing global CO2-emissions. Keywords Carbon leakage . Iron and steel industry . GHG reduction . Cross-impact balance
1 Introduction At the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris where 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement (which entered into force on 4 November 2016) in December 2015, the need for
This article is part of a Special Issue on BIntegrated Scenario Building in Energy Transition Research^ edited by Witold-Roger Poganietz and Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-01902366-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Stefan Vögele [email protected]
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Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), 52425 Jülich, Germany
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TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Schloßplatz 1, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
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FH Aachen, Heinrich-Mußmann Straße 1, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Climatic Change
additional and more ambitious measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was emphasised. Countries like Germany, which already implemented roadmaps to a more sustainable economy, were endorsed in their decisions to transform their energy systems. Yet, such transformation processes may challenge the industries in the corresponding countries. GHG abatement obligations and the associated regulations on energy saving usually imply an additional cost. The relocation of energy-intensive production to countries with no or lower GHG reduction targets may result in increasing global CO2-emissions (Serrenho et al. 2016). Thus, GHG mitigation efforts in one country might be offset by growing production activities and emission levels in others (Bcarbon leakage^).
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