The Future of Logistics Scenarios for 2025
Scenario planning is considered the most prominent and powerful technique of futures research. There are, however, indications that such planning practices are not widespread in the logistics service industry. Why and to what extend is this so? Based on 5
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GABLER EDITION WISSENSCHAFT Einkauf, Logistik und Supply Chain Management Herausgegeben von Professor Dr. Christopher Jahns
Die Schriftenreihe stellt den State-of-the-art betriebswirtschaftlicher Forschung am Supply Management Institute SMI™ im Bereich Einkauf, Logistik und Supply Chain Management dar. Die Verbindung von Theorie und Praxis steht dabei ebenso im Vordergrund wie die internationale Ausrichtung und die unmittelbare Verknüpfung der Themen Einkauf, Logistik und Supply Chain Management.
Heiko A. von der Gracht
The Future of Logistics Scenarios for 2025
With a foreword by Prof. Dr. Christopher Jahns and Prof. Dr. Inga-Lena Darkow
GABLER EDITION WISSENSCHAFT
Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at .
Dissertation European Business School Oestrich-Winkel, 2008 D 1540
1st Edition 2008 All rights reserved © Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verlag Dr. Th. Gabler | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2008 Editorial Office: Frauke Schindler / Nicole Schweitzer Gabler-Verlag is a company of Springer Science+Business Media. www.gabler.de No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise without prior permission of the copyright holder. Registered and/or industrial names, trade names, trade descriptions etc. cited in this publication are part of the law for trade-mark protection and may not be used free in any form or by any means even if this is not specifically marked. Cover design: Regine Zimmer, Dipl.-Designerin, Frankfurt/Main Printed on acid-free paper Printed in Germany ISBN 978-3-8349-1082-0
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Foreword Peter F. Drucker, one of the world’s most influential management gurus of all times, once said that “the best way to predict the future is to create it”. In other words, those managers who systematically study the future have also the power to shape and influence the future. By the means of anticipation they can prepare for the expected as well as the unexpected which allows them to react more flexible and faster than competitors. Futures research, i.e. the interdisciplinary and systematic analysis of the future, has matured to both a theoreticalconceptual and application-oriented research discipline. In his dissertation, Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht concentrates on its most prominent and powerful tool: the scenario technique. The future of the logistics service industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges and opportunities. The industry experiences strong growth rates, but is also confronted with high complexity and dynamism. Intensifying globalisation, stronger competition, and higher customer demands are just some of the factors that lead to a more turbulent and uncertain environment. Against this background, there is a considerable need for futures orientation and innovation in logistics in order to establish flexibility, creativity, and
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