Spatio-temporal analysis of dry and wet periods in Iran by using Global Precipitation Climatology Center-Drought Index (
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Spatio-temporal analysis of dry and wet periods in Iran by using Global Precipitation Climatology Center-Drought Index (GPCC-DI) Alireza Hosseini 1 & Yousef Ghavidel 1
&
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust 2 & Manuchehr Farajzadeh 1
Received: 11 April 2020 / Accepted: 10 November 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in Iran, including severity, duration, frequency, and extent, were studied using the GPCC-DI, in a 68-year period from 1952 to 2019. To display and analyze these features, time trend components, intensity, duration, and area diagrams, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Kriging geostatistical method were used. The result of plotting intensity-duration-frequency maps shows an increasing trend in regional drought severity and spread. It was also found that the most severe droughts occurred in the 12- and 24-month periods from 2000 onward. Mann-Kendall test results also show that significant increases in droughts occurred in the central desert basins of Hamoon basin and south Baluchistan in the southeastern Iran. In addition, decrease in occurrences of dry and wet periods happened in the western, northwestern, and coastal regions of the Caspian Sea. The pattern of spatial variations of drought severity indicated two major drought foci in southeast and central Iran. The number of drought centers in Iran has also increased over time. The results of the analysis of the time trends of dry and wet periods point to the occurrence of continuous droughts in 12- and 24-month periods.
1 Introduction Drought is one of the most common natural hazards that has profound effects on ecosystems, hydrology, agriculture, and the economy (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2012; Narasimhan and Srinivasan 2005). Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought is important in reducing the impacts and managing its risk (Mishra and Singh 2010; He et al. 2011). Therefore, drought as a spatio-temporal process is usually characterized by its intensity, spatial extent, and duration on a regional scale (Xu et al. 2015). This regional phenomenon sometimes covers large areas of land (WMO 2006). Drought is more important in arid regions of the world and has led to many historical crises (Mishra and Singh 2010; Sheffield and Wood 2011; Tallaksen and Van Lanen 2004). Due to the importance of this issue, the study of this phenomenon in Iran has attracted the researchers’ attention due to its greater necessity.
* Yousef Ghavidel [email protected] 1
Department of Physical Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2
Department of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 51664, Iran
A plethora of studies have been conducted with regard to drought, and each of them have studied this issue from different aspects, e.g., Parry et al. (2010) who studied the spatio-temporal development and characteristics of largescale droughts in Europe and Potop and Mozny (2011) who examined the new SPEI drought index in
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