Spatio-temporal estimation of rainfall patterns in north and northwestern states of India between 1901 and 2015: change
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Spatio-temporal estimation of rainfall patterns in north and northwestern states of India between 1901 and 2015: change point detections and trend assessments P. Kalpana 1 & S. Parthiban 1 & P. Gopinathan 2
&
T. Subramani 3 & P. D. Roy 4 & S. Gautam 5 & J. Brema 5
Received: 21 May 2020 / Accepted: 6 October 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract Change point detection and trend analysis are the adopted techniques of time series analysis. We have applied non-parametric methods on the temporal and spatial-scale data of 115 years between 1901 and 2015 from ten different federal states in the north and the northwestern India to examine the change points as well as to estimate the future scenarios by examining the past trends. The change points were examined by Pettitt’s test, Standard Normal Homogeneity (SNH) test, and Buishand’s test, whereas the trend analyses of monthly, annual, and seasonal rainfall data were carried out using Sen’s slope estimator after assessing their statistical significance by Mann–Kendall (M-K) test. The trend analyses showed non-zero slope values and a few among them were of statistical significance. The results of our statistical experiment concluded that the trends of reduction in winter, premonsoon, and post-monsoon rainfalls would have notable effects on the rain-fed agricultural production in the near future, particularly in the areas without proper irrigation facility (e.g., parts of Uttar Pradesh). More extreme events of higher rainfall in some states (e.g., Goa, Maharashtra, and Jammu and Kashmir), however might cause disasters like landslide and flooding. Keywords Change point . Trend analysis . Rainfall . Statistical analysis . India
Introduction Rainfall plays a major role in plant growth in a multiple ways, and it is also a principal component of rain-fed farming in regions that lack a proper irrigation system (Vennila et al. 2007; Subramani et al. 2013a; Gopinathan et al. 2020). Regular This article is part of the Topical Collection on Recent advanced techniques in water resources management * P. Gopinathan [email protected] 1
Vignan’s Foundation for Science, Technology & Research, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh 522 213, India
2
CSIR-Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, Govt. of India, Ranchi, Jharkhand 834010, India
3
Department of Geology, College of Engineering Guindy (CEG), Anna University, Chennai 600025, India
4
Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, CP 04510 Mexico City, Mexico
5
Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu 641114, India
amounts of rainfall are necessary for successful agriculture and consequently the economic growth of a country (Anand et al. 2017; Arya et al. 2019; Divya et al. 2020). On the other hand, the absence or heavy rainfall characterizes the extreme events such as droughts and floods (Subramani et al. 2013b) . They bring economic hardships by causing human casualties and crop destruction in different parts across the enti
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