Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change
In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Austria), created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team w
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Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change With 98 Figures
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Professor Dr. Peter Hackl Institut fUr Statistik Wirtschaftsuniversitat Augasse 2-6 A-1090 Wien
ISBN 978-3-662-02573-4 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Statistical analysis and forecasting of economic structural change 1 Peter Hackl (ed.). Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-3-662-02573-4 ISBN 978-3-662-02571-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-02571-0 I. Economic forecasting --Statistical methods. l. Hackl, Peter. HB3730.S735 1989 330'.01 '51--dc20 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9,1965, in its version of June 24,1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. © 1989 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo in 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
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Preface In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Austria), created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team was to examine the commodity composition as well as the size and direction of commodity and credit flows among countries and regions. Krelle (1988) reports on the results of this "Bonn-IIASA" research project. At the same time, an informal IIASA Working Group was initiated to deal with problems of the statistical analysis of economic data in the context of structural change: What tools do we have to identify nonconstancy of model parameters? What type of models are particularly applicable to nonconstant structure? How is forecasting affected by the presence of nonconstant structure? What problems should be anticipated in applying these tools and models? Some 50 experts, mainly statisticians or econometricians from about 15 countries, came together in Lodz, Poland (May 1985); Berlin, GDR (June 1986); and Sulejov, Poland (September 1986) to present and discuss their findings. This volume contains a selected set of those conference contributions as well as several specially invited chapters. After a euphoric period in the 1960s, model builders in economics became aware of a need of model diagnostics and, in particular, for methods to detect - and cope with - structural changes. Stati
