Statistical analysis for 134 Cs and 137 Cs radioactivity risk levels modeling
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Statistical analysis for 134Cs and 137Cs radioactivity risk levels modeling Ahmet Bilici1,2 · Sevim Bilici1,3 · Fatih Külahcı1 Received: 8 May 2020 / Accepted: 19 September 2020 / Published online: 10 October 2020 © Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary 2020
Abstract After the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, 134Cs and 137Cs were spread widely into the environment. Spatial distribution maps giving radiocesium activities in contaminated soils for post-accident risk modeling were obtained using the Kriging method. We used Generalized extreme-value distribution, Lognormal probability distribution (PDF) and Weibull PDFs for risk assessment of the data. Root mean square error values and coefficient of determination (R2) were calculated for each distribution function. Weibull PDF was found to be more successful in modeling 134Cs and 137 Cs activities.
* Ahmet Bilici [email protected] Sevim Bilici [email protected] Fatih Külahcı [email protected] 1
Nuclear Physics Division, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Fırat University, Elazig, Turkey
2
Department of Medical Imaging Techniques, Vocational School of Health Service, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, Bandirma, Turkey
3
Department of Opticianry, Vocational School of Health Service, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, Bandirma, Turkey
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Vol.:(0123456789)
1048
Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry (2020) 326:1047–1064
Graphic abstract
Keywords Risk analysis · Probability distribution function · Distribution functions · Modeling · Kriging
Introduction The Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident that followed the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 caused radioactive pollution in Fukushima and neighboring regions of Japan [1–4]. Radioactive materials were released from FDNPP between 12 and 20 March 2011 due to hydrogen explosions, damage in
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the plant infrastructure and containment vessel venting [3, 5, 6]. The accident resulted in large scale release of the Cs radioactive isotopes, especially 134Cs (t1/2 = 2.1 year) and long-lived radionuclide 137Cs (t1/2 = 30 year) into the environment [7]. 134Cs is produced by neutron activation of the stable final product of the 133-atom weight fission chain. 137Cs is a fission product of both U- and Pu-reactors [8]. 134Cs decay with beta emission and yield one beta
Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry (2020) 326:1047–1064
particle per conversion with an average of 0.157 MeV energy. It also emits an average of 2.23 gamma rays per conversion with an average of 0.698 MeV energy. 137Cs decay with beta emission and yield one beta particle per conversion with an average of 0.188 MeV energy. 137Cs decay with beta decay to stable 137Ba or to a meta-stable (137mBa) barium form. 137mBa is converted to stable 137 Ba (t1/2 = 2.552 min) in a very short time accompanied by gamma ray emission with 0.662 MeV energy. The main signal used to identify 137Cs is gamma radiation at 662 keV, which is the product of beta decay to
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