Statistical Decision Theory
This monograph presents a radical rethinking of how elementary inferences should be made in statistics, implementing a comprehensive alternative to hypothesis testing in which the control of the probabilities of the errors is replaced by selecting the cou
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Nicholas T. Longford
Statistical Decision Theory
SpringerBriefs in Statistics
For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/8921
Nicholas T. Longford
Statistical Decision Theory
123
Nicholas T. Longford SNTL and Department of Economics and Business Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona Spain
ISSN 2191-544X ISBN 978-3-642-40432-0 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-40433-7
ISSN 2191-5458 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-642-40433-7 (eBook)
Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2013948867 Ó The Author(s) 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To Mr. A. Horger and his colleagues
Preface
Making decisions is at the heart of all human activity, mundane as well as adventurous, for both livelihood and fun. It is an abstract process in which we try to anticipate what may happen if we choose one course of action or another, and weigh carefully which one is safer, more enjoyable and profitable, or will bear greater benefits of some other kind. The definition of statistics assumed in this volume is that of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and with limited resources. In this perspective, any meaningful analysis should closely look at the consequences of the possible outcomes and of the recommendations based o
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