Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea Tefaruk Haktanir & Saleh Bajabaa & Milad Masoud
Received: 30 May 2012 / Accepted: 31 July 2012 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2012
Abstract Independence, stationarity, homogeneity, trend, and periodicity tests are applied on 48-year-long complete and 79-year-long incomplete maximum daily rainfall series recorded at Alexandria, Egypt, and on 61year-long maximum daily rainfall series recorded at Antalya, Turkey, which are located at the southeastern and northeastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The results indicate no significant trend and no periodicity in mean, and both series are independent and homogeneous. Linear regression trend test applied to the 10 % highest part of the Alexandria series indicated a significant increasing trend. Next, frequency analysis is applied on each of these series by the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme-values, threeparameter log-normal, Pearson-3, log-Pearson-3, loglogistic, generalized Pareto, and Wakeby. The distributions, except for the generalized Pareto and Wakeby, pass the χ2 and Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests at 90 % probability. By visual inspection of the plots of histograms together with the probability density functions, and by the results of the χ2, Kolmogorov– Smirnov, and probability plot correlation coefficient tests, the general extreme-value distribution whose parameters are computed by the method of probabilityweighted moments is deemed to be suitable for these two maximum daily rainfall series. Keywords Maximum daily rainfall . Tests for trend . Independence . Stationarity . Homogeneity . Frequency analysis
T. Haktanir (*) : S. Bajabaa : M. Masoud King Abdulaziz University, Water Research Centre, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia e-mail: [email protected]
Introduction Many studies in the last two decades indicate a change in climate in the twentieth century, which is expected to protract into the twenty-first century, caused mainly by release of excessive amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere since 1970s (e.g., Anderson et al. 2010; IPCC 2007, 2008, 2011; NZCCO 2008; Sen et al. 2012a, b). Yet, a few studies may be found arguing that various mechanisms of the planet will counter the anthropogenic effects somehow (e.g., Ball 1992; Nandargi and Dhar 2011). According to many publications, an increase in extreme precipitation is expected worldwide even at regions where annual average rainfall has a decreasing trend (e.g., Burn et al. 2011; Collins 2009; Douglas and Fairbank 2011; Fujibe et al. 2005; Groisman et al. 2005; Guo 2006; IPCC 2007, 2008, 2011; Kundzewicz et al. 2005; NZCCO 2008). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, known by the acronym IPCC, is a unit comprised of experts established by the United Nations to organize evaluations of climate change information. The climatic simulation models such as ECHAM4 of Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie are executed on high-capacity computers with
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