Stochastic Climate Models
The proceedings of the summer 1999 Chorin workshop on stochastic climate models captures well the spirit of enthusiasm of the workshop participants engaged in research in this exciting field. It is amazing that nearly 25 years after the formal theory of n
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Series Editors Thomas Liggett
Charles Newman Loren Pitt
Stochastic Climate Models Peter Imkeller Jin-Song von Storch Editors
Springer Basel AG
Editors' addresses: Peter Imkeller Institut fUr Mathematik Humboldt-Universitiit zu Berlin Unter den Linden 6 D-l0099 Berlin e-mail: [email protected]
Jin-Song von Storch Institut fUr Meteorologie Universitiit Hamburg Bundesstr. 55 D-20146 Hamburg e-mail: [email protected]
2000 Mathematics Subject Classification 34Cxx, 34Dxx, 35Bxx, 58Fxx, 60, 82, 86, 93
A CIP cataiogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress, Washington D.C., USA
Deutsche Bibliothek Cataioging-in-Publication Data Stochastic climate models : workshop in Chorin, Germany, 1999 I Peter Irnkeller ; Jin-Song von Storch ed.. - Basel; Boston; Berlin: Birkhăuser, 2001 (progress in probability ; VoI. 49)
ISBN 978-3-0348-9504-0
ISBN 978-3-0348-8287-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-0348-8287-3
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concemed, specifica1ly the rights of translation, reprinting, re-nse of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. For any kind of use permission of the copyright owner must be obtained. © 2001 Springer Basel AG Originally published by Birkhiiuser Verlag Basel in 2001 Softcover reprint of the hardcover l st edition 2001 Printed on acid-free paper produced from chlorine-free pulp. TCF 00 ISBN 978-3-0348-9504-0 987654321
Preface The proceedings of the summer 1999 Chorin workshop on stochastic climate models captures well the spirit of enthusiasm of the workshop participants engaged in research in this exciting field. It is amazing that nearly 25 years after the formal theory of natural climate variability generated by quasi-white-noise weather forcing was developed, and almost 35 years after J .M. Mitchell first suggested this mechanism as the origin of sea-surface-temperature fluctuations and climate variability, there have arisen so many fresh perspectives and new applications of the theory. The workshop has succeeded admirably in highlighting these new aspects while clarifying the position of stochastic climate modelling within the general framework of climate research and mathematical modelling. The organizers can be congratulated in bringing together leading researchers covering a wide range of scientific expertise, from mathematicians concerned with the derivation of stochastic models from first principles, to applied climate modellers trying to understand the dynamics of the complex climate system. Following the first burst of stochastic modelling papers in the decade from the mid-seventies to the mid-eighties, in which the viability of the concept was demonstrated using relatively simple conceptual models, there was a lull of work in this field. One awaited the development of more sophisticated climate models with which one could carry out realistic quantitative analyses of the implications of stochastic forcing for the
