Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk
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Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk Wei Wang1,2 · Chenhong Xia1 · Chaofeng Liu3 · Ziyi Wang1 Received: 26 September 2018 / Accepted: 25 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Aiming at solving the difficult problem of inconsistent single-method evaluation results in comprehensive disaster risk assessment, this paper presents an evaluation method based on a combination of the ranking value and the evaluation value. First, the seven methods of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), the set pair analysis (SPA), the improved grey target analysis (IGT), the fuzzy stochastic simulation (FSS), the grey relational degree analysis (GRA), the extension matter element evaluation (EME), and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) are used to conduct urban comprehensive disaster risk assessment. Second, to ensure the degree of correlation between individual evaluation methods and make full use of more information to achieve the purpose of complementary advantages, the Kendall synergy coefficient, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and the comprehensive support coefficient are used as the single-method compatibility consistency test standards. The combined evaluation methods of the cyclic correction model and support model are used to combine the single evaluation results, and the highly coordinated comprehensive disaster risk ranking value and evaluation value are obtained through repeated tests, thus constructing a highly scientific and reasonable dual combination evaluation model. Finally, through analysis and comparison of the final combined ranking and evaluation values of 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions in China under the dual combination mode, it is verified that the dual combination idea can obtain evaluation results with high convergence and credibility, solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation results of multiple methods, provide a new research idea and method for measuring the comprehensive disaster risk of cities, and provide a scientific basis for efficiently serving comprehensive risk prevention management and various urban planning and construction work. Keywords Comprehensive disaster risk · Comprehensive evaluation method · Consistency test · Cycle correction idea · Support degree concept · Combination evaluation method
* Wei Wang [email protected] * Chaofeng Liu [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction In May 2017, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the Mexican government conducted in-depth exchanges on the implementation of the Sendai framework for risk reduction and the strengthening of national practices, experiences, and progress in disasters, showing that countries attach great importance to disaster risk. At present, the world is experiencing more and more frequent and serious natural disaste
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