Study of the relationship between African ITCZ variability and an extreme heat wave on Egypt in summer 2015
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Study of the relationship between African ITCZ variability and an extreme heat wave on Egypt in summer 2015 Y. Y. Hafez 1 & M. Almazroui 1
Received: 4 November 2015 / Accepted: 25 April 2016 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2016
Abstract An extreme heat wave hit Egypt in summer 2015. Abnormal hot weather conditions existed over Egypt for the entire summer season. The present paper investigates the relationship between the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over Africa and a scorching heat wave that existed over Egypt in summer 2015. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data of mean surface air temperature for the domain of Egypt for the summer season from 1948 to 2015 were used in this study. In addition, data of the daily maximum and daily minimum temperature used for the summer season of the year 2015 were also used. Time cross-section analysis of the daily operational data of geopotential height at level 500 hPa over Egypt from 1 June to 31 August 2015 was done. Moreover, the African ITCZ, both the western and the eastern ITCZ, data for summer of 2015 were used for the said period. The time series, time cross-section, anomaly, and correlation coefficient techniques were used to analyze the datasets. The results revealed that a new climate change record of heat wave over Egypt existed in summer 2015. Moreover, there is an outstanding significant positive correlation between the abrupt shift of African ITCZ position and heat wave occurrence over Egypt in summer 2015. In particular, the southerly movement of the eastern African ITCZ controls the weather over
* Y. Y. Hafez [email protected]; [email protected]
1
Department of Meteorology, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
Egypt and led to the extreme heat wave in summer 2015. Keywords Heat wave . Surface air temperature . Geopotential height . African ITCZ . Egypt
Introduction The Middle East, including Egypt, was hit by a heat wave in late July of summer 2015. Egyptian summers are usually hot, but temperatures in the summer season of 2015 soared to an extreme high record of temperature (46 °C) in the south of the country due to which there was an unusual hot weather in that region. The heat wave maximized in mid-August over Egypt and the temperature reached a staggering value. The weather remained hot in the north of Egypt and was very hot in many parts of the country especially in Upper Egypt. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority and health ministry advised older people and children to avoid exposure to direct sunlight. According to the Egyptian Ministry of Health, at least 100 people died during the summer and most of them were elderly (Bloomberg 2015). Similarly, Central and Eastern Europe were in the grips of a record-breaking heat wave, with countries such as Germany, Czech Republic, and Poland with record-breaking temperature for summer 2015. Recently, there have been sever
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