System reliability analysis of soil slopes through constrained optimization
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Xiangrui Duan I Jie Zhang I Hongwei Huang I Peng Zeng I Lulu Zhang
System reliability analysis of soil slopes through constrained optimization
Abstract As a slope may have numerous potential slip surfaces, its failure probability as a system is usually different from that of a single slip surface. Nevertheless, the system failure probability of a slope is often governed by several representative slip surfaces. How to identify the representative slip surfaces is important for system reliability analysis of soil slopes. Previous studies on representative slip surface identification mainly focus on circular slip surfaces within the framework of limit equilibrium methods; there are also relevant researches, albeit limited, within the framework of finite element/finite difference analyses based on the shear strength reduction method. By viewing the task of representative slip surface identification as a multidesign point identification problem, a barrier-based optimization method is suggested in this paper to identify representative slip surfaces of arbitrary shape based on the shear strength reduction method. A multiple starting point strategy is suggested to enhance its efficiency. For the three slopes examined in this paper, the method suggested is capable of identifying representative slip surfaces efficiently without prior assumption on their shapes. Keywords System reliability . Multiple design points . Representative slip surfaces . Constrained optimization Introduction Over the years, efforts have been made on slope reliability analysis to evaluate the slope failure probability (e.g., Chowdhury and Xu 1993, Chowdhury and Xu 1995, Griffiths and Fenton 2004, Wu 2015, Li et al. 2016, Li et al. 2017, Liu et al. 2017, Di Matteo et al. 2018, Huang et al. 2018, Dyson and Tolooiyan 2019, Hostettler et al. 2019, Li et al. 2019, Ma et al. 2019). For a soil slope, it is now recognized that the total failure probability can be larger than the failure probability induced by any individual slip surface (e.g., Cornell 1972, Huang et al. 2010, Zhang et al. 2011, Cho 2013, Zeng et al. 2015, Metya et al. 2017). Also, it has been widely recognized that, although a slope may have numerous potential slip surfaces, its failure probability is often governed by several locally critical slip surfaces, which are called representative slip surfaces in the literature (Zhang et al. 2011). The representative slip surfaces can not only be used for system reliability analysis but also be used to understand the likely failure mechanism of the slope. In recent years, how to identify representative slip surfaces for system reliability of a slope has been extensively studied (e.g., Cho 2013, Li et al. 2013, Zeng et al. 2015, Li and Chu 2016, Kang et al. 2017, Liu et al. 2017, Ma et al. 2017, Metya et al. 2017, Liu et al. 2018, Dyson and Tolooiyan 2019). Currently, most studies focus on the identification of representative slip surfaces when the slip surfaces are circular. Several studies have been conducted to search for noncircular representativ
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