Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous-dominated eco
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ECOSYSTEM ECOLOGY – ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous‑dominated ecosystems Meghan L. Avolio1 · Kevin R. Wilcox2 · Kimberly J. Komatsu3 · Nathan Lemoine4,5 · William D. Bowman6 · Scott L. Collins7 · Alan K. Knapp8,9 · Sally E. Koerner10 · Melinda D. Smith8,9 · Sara G. Baer11 · Katherine L. Gross12 · Forest Isbell13 · Jennie McLaren14 · Peter B. Reich15,16 · Katharine N. Suding6 · K. Blake Suttle17 · David Tilman13 · Zhuwen Xu18 · Qiang Yu19 Received: 21 February 2020 / Accepted: 10 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Understanding how global change drivers (GCDs) affect aboveground net primary production (ANPP) through time is essential to predicting the reliability and maintenance of ecosystem function and services in the future. While GCDs, such as drought, warming and elevated nutrients, are known to affect mean ANPP, less is known about how they affect inter-annual variability in ANPP. We examined 27 global change experiments located in 11 different herbaceous ecosystems that varied in both abiotic and biotic conditions, to investigate changes in the mean and temporal variability of ANPP (measured as the coefficient of variation) in response to different GCD manipulations, including resource additions, warming, and irrigation. From this comprehensive data synthesis, we found that GCD treatments increased mean ANPP. However, GCD manipulations both increased and decreased temporal variability of ANPP (24% of comparisons), with no net effect overall. These inconsistent effects on temporal variation in ANPP can, in part, be attributed to site characteristics, such as mean annual precipitation and temperature as well as plant community evenness. For example, decreases in temporal variability in ANPP with the GCD treatments occurred in wetter and warmer sites with lower plant community evenness. Further, the addition of several nutrients simultaneously increased the sensitivity of ANPP to interannual variation in precipitation. Based on this analysis, we expect that GCDs will likely affect the magnitude more than the reliability over time of ecosystem production in the future. Keywords Ecosystem function · Grasslands · Primary production · Sensitivity · Stability
Introduction Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) is the principal energy source for higher trophic levels, and production of upper trophic levels depends on the amount and variability of ANPP over time (McNaughton et al. 1989). Therefore, understanding what regulates variation in ANPP through time is critical for predicting long-term patterns of Communicated by Heather Throop. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04787-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Meghan L. Avolio [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
ecosystem functioning and services (Da
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