The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century
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The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century K. R. Sperber • H. Annamalai • I.-S. Kang • A. Kitoh • A. Moise • A. Turner • B. Wang • T. Zhou
Received: 25 July 2012 / Accepted: 18 November 2012 Ó Springer-Verlag (outside the USA) 2012
Abstract The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late twentieth Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the
K. R. Sperber (&) Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-103, Livermore, CA 94551, USA e-mail: [email protected] H. Annamalai B. Wang International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, 1680 East–West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA I.-S. Kang School of Earth and Environmental Science (SEES), Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea A. Kitoh Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-0052, Japan A. Moise Climate Variability and Change Group, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia A. Turner Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK T. Zhou LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing 100029, China
monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Nin˜o3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India t
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