The Crimean War Versus the Suez Crisis

The Crimean War (1853–1856) occurred during a period of rising happiness in the British Parliament, and the Suez Crisis of 1956, during a period of falling happiness, although the absolute happiness levels were similar in both times. This chapter finds th

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Peter S. Jenkins

War and Happiness

Peter S. Jenkins

War and Happiness The Role of Temperament in the Assessment of Resolve

Peter S. Jenkins Osgoode Hall Law School York University Toronto, ON, Canada

ISBN 978-3-030-14077-9 ISBN 978-3-030-14078-6  (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14078-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2019932920 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover credit: CSA-Printstock/Getty Images This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

To the loving memory of my parents, the intrepid and cosmopolitan Dr. Maya and Jack Jenkins

Preface

The similarity of the roles played by Belle Époque Britain and post-millennial America as declining hegemons highlights the eerie resemblance between the current geo-political environment and the prelude to World War I. One of my goals in writing this book is to mitigate the existential risk associated with this historical parallel by providing state leaders and diplomats with a greater ability to accurately assess whether they are overestimating or underestimating their adversaries’ resolve (their willingness to go to war). Hopefully, this knowledge will enable them to prevent the types of fatal misperceptions and miscalculations that occurred in the summer of 1914. The book’s analysis is based primarily on how the emotions of happiness and sadness affect the human tendency towards having a self-serving bias. I derived the necessary empirical data from the psycholinguistic text mining of debates, speeches, statements and memos of leaders, politicians and diplomats, both individually and in aggregated form, as w