The effects of earthquake exposure on preparedness in the short and long term: a difference-in-differences estimation
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The effects of earthquake exposure on preparedness in the short and long term: a difference‑in‑differences estimation Hanna Habibi1 · Jan Feld1,2 Received: 21 April 2020 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Emergency support is often delayed after a disaster. Despite the importance of being prepared to deal with the immediate aftermath of disasters, not everyone prepares effectively. While exposure to disasters improves people’s preparedness in the short term, it is yet to be determined whether this improvement is long lasting. In this paper, we use a difference-indifferences method to estimate the causal effects of the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes on people’s preparedness in the short-term (1 month after the second earthquake) and long-term (up to 25 months after the second earthquake). Our results show that people who experienced the earthquakes increase their preparedness by 0.67 standard deviations in the short term. This impact stays positive, but declines to 0.42 standard deviations in the long term. Keywords Natural hazards · Disasters · Disaster preparedness · Risk analysis · Risk management
1 Introduction Disasters triggered by natural hazards like floods and earthquakes have serious consequences. They damage properties, injure and kill people, and affect households by causing disruption in roads and utility networks. Since emergency support is often delayed, it is important that households are sufficiently prepared to deal with the immediate aftermaths of disasters. Emergency management officials promote self-efficiency to cope with disasters by specifying which supplies to buy and which actions to take (Russell et al. 1995). The Red Cross (2019) identifies well-prepared households to be those who understand disasters and their effects, have a household survival plan, assemble and maintain emergency items, and
* Hanna Habibi [email protected] 1
School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, 23 Lambton Quay, Pipitea, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
2
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, Germany
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
have a getaway kit/bag. Despite of the importance of being prepared, few people prepare effectively. Only 25% of Americans have adequate emergency plans and all recommended emergency items (Petkova et al. 2016). Similarly, only 14% of New Zealanders are fully prepared (Disaster Preparedness Survey 2016). Underpreparedness for disasters could be the result of optimism bias (McClure 2006). This cognitive bias occurs when people believe they are less likely to experience disasters than the average person. Experiencing disasters can mitigate optimism bias and cause people to be more prepared (Rogers 1983; Mulilis et al. 1990, 2003; Russell et al. 1995; Nguyen et al. 2006; Lindell and Perry 2000). However, it can also cause people to be less prepared if they survived a disaster without harm (Johnston et al. 1999; Paton et al. 2014). Moreover, people tend to forget the lessons of past disasters, which sug
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