The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia
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ORIGINAL PAPER
The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia Stanislav N. Sannikov1 · Nelly S. Sannikova1 · Irina V. Petrova1 · Olga E. Cherepanova1
Received: 12 May 2020 / Accepted: 21 September 2020 © Northeast Forestry University 2020
Abstract Simulation of fire impact on forest floor renewal in pine forests was based on predictions for 2100 by the Canadian Climate Centre for increase in temperatures of by 4.5 °C and total precipitation by 14% in the West Siberian pre-forest-steppes and empirical regression relationships between them and the degree of burnt forest floor, as well as amount of Pinus sylvestris L. regeneration. It was predicted that by 2100, pine regeneration on fire prone sites under the canopy of the dominant forest type will increase by 29–54% compared to the 1980s but on adjacent open sites, regeneration will decrease twice as much. This means that the regeneration potential and pine population stability in pre-forest-steppes will become as poor as it is today. Keywords Fire · Forecast · Stability · Population · Mathematical model · Seeds · Imitation model · Undergrowth
Introduction One of the key topics of modern forest ecology and biogeography is the study of climate change impacts on the
Project funding: The project was completed during the implementation of the state program of the Botanical Garden. The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com. Corresponding editor: Yu Lei. * Olga E. Cherepanova [email protected] 1
Botanical Garden of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Science, 202a, 8 Marta St., Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia
structure, renewal and dynamics of forest-forming species (Gorchakovsky and Shiyatov 1985; Kullman 1988; Vaganov et al. 1998; Holtmeier 2003; Kharuk et al. 2006; Lawson and Michler 2014; Eaton et al. 2017; Prichard et al. 2017; Maher et al. 2018; Brown et al. 2019; Romeo et al. 2020;). The evaluation and forecast of more frequent fires and their (Fosberg et al. 1993, 1996; Tcvetkov 2014; Valendik et al. 2014; Addington et al. 2018) are of considerable interest due to rapid climate warming. Wildfires are a main factor in the renewal of forest plant populations and a fundamental ecosystem process determining forest structure, dynamics, stability and regeneration (Sannikov 1992). The most dramatic fire-climate change driven transformations and even community changes may be expected within the transition between forest and non-forest vegetation–forest and steppe or grasslands in the south and forest and tundra in the north of the boreal zone (Wein and de Groot 1996; Koptseva and Egorov 2017). Previously large climate-driven changes of stand species composition and even entire vegetation types in North America (Emanuel et al. 1985; Kauppi and Posch 1988) and in Central Siberia (Tchebakova et al. 2003) were predicted based on correlation models between the factorial-ecological requirements (econiche) of woody plants and climate parameters. Considering climate warming within the boreal zone of North E
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