The Great Demographic Reversal Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality,
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever
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Charles Goodhart · Manoj Pradhan
The Great Demographic Reversal Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival
Charles Goodhart London School of Economics London, UK
Manoj Pradhan Talking Heads Macro London, UK
ISBN 978-3-030-42656-9 ISBN 978-3-030-42657-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6
(eBook)
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Preface (April 4 Version)
In this book, we focus on the effects of demography and globalisation on longer run trends in finance and the real economy. Such trends are usually slow-moving and operate at the global, rather than national, level. Since the concern of most macroeconomic analysis is on developments at the cyclical frequency and at the national level, we believe that the importance of these factors has been largely overlooked. Our global and structural focus has provided us with more than enough material for quite a long book. We do not, indeed we could not, try to encompass all the other myriad issues that will affect our longer-term economic future, such as climate change and technological developments, largely because many others, much more expert than ourselves, have taken up such subjects. And there are the ‘unknown unknowns’, which will probably become the dominant influence on all our future lives. Our main thesis is that such demographic and globalisation factors were largely responsible for the deflationary pressures of the last three decades, but that such forces are now reversing, so that the world’s main economies
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