The growth and production modeling of individual trees of Eucalyptus urophylla plantations
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ORIGINAL PAPER
The growth and production modeling of individual trees of Eucalyptus urophylla plantations Joa˜o Victor Nobre Carrijo1 • Ana Beatriz de Freitas Ferreira1 • Marcela Costa Ferreira1 • Ma´rio Ce´sar de Aguiar1 • Eder Pereira Miguel1 • Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi1 • Alba Vale´ria Rezende1
Received: 11 September 2018 / Accepted: 4 December 2018 Ó Northeast Forestry University 2019
Abstract Individual tree models (ITMs) are classified as growth and production models for projecting current and future forest stands. ITMs are more complex than other growth and production models, show a higher level of detail and, consequently, produce a better modeling resolution. However, the accuracy and efficiency of ITMs have not been properly assessed to date. In this study, we estimated the growth in height, diameter, and individual tree volume of a Eucalyptus urophylla plantation by applying an ITM. We used a continuing forest inventory dataset in which 1554 individual trees within 29 permanent plots were measured in the field over a 6-year period (24 to 72 months). Each individual tree volume was estimated for future tree age. To achieve this, we adjusted the model to predict the height and diameter growth, and the probability of mortality as a function of the competition index. The ITM accuracy was assessed based on the analysis of variance results and, subsequently, the multiple mean comparison test at the 5% significance level. The tree volumes predicted by the ITM for the forest stand aged 72 months, beginning at ages 24, 36, 48, and 60 months, were compared to the field measured tree volume acquired from the
Project funding: The work was supported by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) and the Brazilian National Council of Science and Technology (CNPQ). The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com Corresponding editor: Tao Xu. & Joa˜o Victor Nobre Carrijo [email protected] 1
Department of Forestry, Faculty of Technology, University of Brası´lia, Brası´lia 70910-900, Brazil
72-month forest inventory that was used as the reference age. Estimated and observed tree volumes were similar when the estimation was based on the 48-month forest plots. These results might help to reduce financial costs of forest inventory because the ITM produces accurate future predictions of forest stand stocks. Our estimated ITM for Eucalyptus plantations using measurement intervals up to 2 years is recommended because it significantly reduced the projected volume discrepancy compared to the field measurements. Keywords Competition index Forest production Forest site Simulation models Tree mortality
Introduction There are several categories of growth and forest production models. The most commonly used models are the stand-level models, diametric distribution models, and individual tree models (ITMs; Davis et al. 2005). Individual trees are the basic modeling unit of an ITM that are used to simulate tree growth (diameter and height) and mortality (Campo
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