The Impact of Climate Change on Wheat, Barley, and Maize Growth Indices in Near-Future and Far-Future Periods in Qazvin
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RESEARCH
The Impact of Climate Change on Wheat, Barley, and Maize Growth Indices in Near‑Future and Far‑Future Periods in Qazvin Plain, Iran S. Maryam Banihashemi1 · Seyed‑Saeid Eslamian1 · Bijan Nazari2 Received: 12 January 2020 / Accepted: 27 September 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The current noticeable climate change that has a significant impact on the environment and agricultural systems has become a serious concern for human society. Followed by the industrial activities of the global community and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, these changes are still considered as a threat to food safety and the environment. Changes in minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall amounts, and precipitation pattern, changes in C O2 concentrations, and complex interactions between these factors and different crops are studied in the form of different probabilistic scenarios to get a glimpse of the future cultivation situation. Agriculture in Qazvin Plain is based on the water transferred from Taleqan Dam and groundwater. Since today these resources are facing issues like restriction on transfer and draw off, which is because of growth of interest in city dwelling, inappropriate water consumption patterns and over-exploitation, agriculture is sensitive to probable changes in water requirements and it is necessary to predict these changes for better management in the future. This study was carried out to investigate the effect of climate change on growth indices for three crops including wheat, barley, and maize in Qazvin Plain with different possible climate change scenarios, in the form of five large-scale climate models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in 30 years’ time from 2021 to 2050 as well as from 2051 to 2080. Results showed that biomass production, grain yield, and water use efficiency in three crops of wheat, barley, and maize have increased up to 20–40% in future periods in Qazvin region climate. Growing degree-days (GDD) of these three crops have increased by 20%. Transpiration has risen by 10% in wheat and maize; however, it was stable on average in the first period and slightly decreased in the second period in barley. The transpiration coefficient has reduced by 5% for wheat and barley and has increased by 15% for maize. Results are valid as long as the initial growing conditions of these three plants are done as before, and the irrigation scheduling is performed according to the present period in spite of climate change. Keywords Climate change · Plant growth index · Biomass · Grain yield · Water use efficiency · Growing degree-days (GDD) · Transpiration · Transpiration coefficient
Introduction Nowadays, there is an ongoing debate on the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem (Kong et al. 2017; Wang et al. 2011). Global warming has been accepted as a fact in recent years, and climate change has also been considered as one of the most important issues in this field * S. Maryam Banihashemi [email protected] 1
Department of
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