The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation
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The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation Lindsay Beevers1 · Lila Collet1,2 · Gordon Aitken1 · Claire Maravat1 · Annie Visser1 Received: 7 March 2019 / Accepted: 29 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural hazard, threatening life and property worldwide. Governments worldwide are facing significant challenges associated with flood hazard, specifically: increasing urbanization; against the background of uncertainty associated with increasing climate variability under climate change. Thus, flood hazard assessments need to consider climate change uncertainties explicitly. This paper explores the role of climate change uncertainty through uncertainty analysis in flood modelling through a probabilistic framework using a Monte Carlo approach and is demonstrated for case study catchment. Different input, structure and parameter uncertainties were investigated to understand how important the role of a non-stationary climate may be on future extreme flood events. Results suggest that inflow uncertainties are the most influential in order to capture the range of uncertainty in inundation extent, more important than hydraulic model parameter uncertainty, and thus, the influence of non-stationarity of climate on inundation extent is critical to capture. Topographic controls are shown to create tipping points in the inundation–flow relationship, and these may be useful and important to quantify for future planning and policy. Full Monte Carlo analysis within the probabilistic framework is computationally expensive, and there is a need to explore more timeefficient strategies which may result in a similar estimate of the full uncertainty. Simple uncertainty quantification techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling approaches were tested to reduce computational burden. Keywords Flood inundation · Climate change · Uncertainty quantification · Probabilistic
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s1106 9-020-04282-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Lindsay Beevers [email protected] 1
Water Resilient Cities Group, Institute for Infrastructure and the Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
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Irstea, HYCAR Research Unit, 1 rue Pierre Gilles de Gennes, 92 160 Antony, France
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural hazard, threatening life and property worldwide (Jonkman and Vrijling 2008). Flood risk is a function of flood hazard and consequence (IPCC 2014; Balica et al. 2013). Flood hazards result from many different sources (e.g. coastal, fluvial, pluvial or estuarine), whilst the consequences arise from the adverse impacts of flooding on people, property, human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity (Beevers et al. 2016). The UN estimates that 1 Bn people live in areas of potential flood risk and damage caused by f
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