The May 11 Paphos, Cyprus, earthquake: implications for stress regime and tsunami modelling for the Eastern Mediterranea
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1ST CAJG 2018
The May 11 Paphos, Cyprus, earthquake: implications for stress regime and tsunami modelling for the Eastern Mediterranean shorelines Ergin Ulutaş 1 Received: 10 July 2019 / Accepted: 2 September 2020 / Published online: 17 September 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract The paper deals with the analysis of the propagation, heights, and arrival times of a tsunami that may occur on the coastal areas of Cyprus and Eastern Mediterranean in the case of an earthquake in southern Cyprus. Following a review of the seismic risk and historical earthquakes which occurred in southern Cyprus, it was concluded that this region may be subject to high vulnerability if a tsunami occurs. A study was conducted on the numerical modelling of a possible tsunami generated by movement along the fault of the 1222 Paphos earthquake. The region where the earthquake occurred can be attributed to the Cyprian Arc in the southwest of Cyprus. This arc is one of the most active seismic zones in the Mediterranean, which has led to the occurrence of earthquakes from submerged seismogenic sources. A methodology is used to simulate tsunami wave propagation for the Eastern Mediterranean coastal areas which requires the initial wave due to fault parameters as well as the bathymetry data. The GEBCO30 bathymetry data are used which have a grid spacing of 0.30 arc min. The fault parameters are deduced from the maximum stress directions and source geometry of the region from the moment tensor solutions derived from analyzing of earthquake waveforms. The numerical tsunami propagation model was performed by using SWAN code. The simulated highest tsunami heights were 4.02 m in Kouklia (Cyprus); 2.85 m in Paphos Ktima (Cyprus); 2.58 in Episkopi (Cyprus); 2.06 in Peyia (Cyprus); 1.76 in Yennadhi, Rhodes (Greece); 1.53 in Burg Migheizil (Egypt); 1.46 m in Tarabulus (Lebanon); 1.39 m in Bur Said (Egypt); 1.28 in Al-Burj (Egypt); and 0.60 in Muğla-Aksaz (Turkey). The results of the model outline the extent of the tsunami waves of damaging size, but destructive event in the region. Keywords Eastern Mediterranean . Historical earthquakes . Tsunamigenic earthquakes . Shallow water theory . Source parameters . Numerical tsunami simulation
Introduction The Cyprus Arc lies in the sea in the west and south of Cyprus, forming the tectonic boundary between Africa and the Eurasian Lithospheric plates in the Eastern Mediterranean where the largest earthquakes occurred in history (Jackson and This paper was selected from the 1st Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG), Tunisia, 2018 Responsible Editor: Longjun Dong * Ergin Ulutaş [email protected] 1
Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kocaeli University, Umuttepe Campus, 41380 Kocaeli, Turkey
McKenzie 1984). There is a continental tectonic plate named Anatolian escaping the intersection between Eurasia and Arabia plates which was a part of African plate (Reilingier and McClusky 2011). Moving to the west at a speed of 20 mm/year, there is the Eurasia
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