Implications for Freight Transport Demand Modelling from Interdisciplinary Research: Developing a Concept for Modelling
The freight transport system is a major determinant for the competitiveness of logistics and production activities. On the other hand, logistics and production shape freight transport demand. Therefore, freight transport demand models are needed that can
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Introduction The transport system plays a key role for national and international economic prosperity by offering mobility to people and goods. Hence, it bridges the spatial gap between locations of production and consumption for raw materials, intermediates and final products. With today’s multi-tier and minimum-inventory supply chains, the transport system’s reliability becomes a competitive factor for national economies. Together with the circumstance of limited budgets and strict environmental regulations, public authorities face limited room for manoeuvre for creating and maintaining a sustainable transport system that fulfils the manifold arising requirements. In order to cope with these challenges, reliable prognoses and policy assessments are needed. These are the key application areas of freight transport models. Thus, when developing these models two questions arise: What are the most important drivers of freight transport? How do we capture these drivers in freight transport models? In the following, we are going to structure the solution space of these questions and give answers for selected aspects. All of the eligible drivers can be aggregated to so-called megatrends. Over the last decades, these megatrends have strongly influenced the development of society and economy. Not only certain industries have vanished or moved to other countries (e.g. German coal mining) but also new industries have emerged (e.g. mobile
O. Ottem€ oller (*) Institute of Traffic and Transport, Technische Universita¨t Darmstadt, Otto-Berndt-Str. 2, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany e-mail: [email protected] H. Friedrich Wissenschaftliche Hochschule f€ur Logistik und Unternehmensf€ uhrung, K€ uhne Logistics University – KLU, Großer Grasbrook 17, 20457 Hamburg, Germany e-mail: [email protected] © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 E. Abele et al. (eds.), Dynamic and Seamless Integration of Production, Logistics and Traffic, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-41097-5_10
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telecommunication). Other industries have adapted their processes and products to the arising new challenges and opportunities. The automotive industry has been one of these highly dynamic industries as it has successfully implemented new concepts in production and logistics. Furthermore, it has also integrated new technologies into the produced vehicles. Hence, we will use the German automotive industry as an example for the hypotheses discussed. In the first section, we deal with rather general challenges that accompany modelling in the interdisciplinary domain of production, logistics and transport. Next, we move on to the phenomenon freight transport, suitable indicators for its description and drivers influencing freight transport demand. In the following section, we describe the German automotive industry from our perspective as freight transport demand researchers point out potential future developments for the industry. As most developments are correlated with effects influencing the supply
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