The possibility to applying simulated series for compile scenario forecasting river runoff
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
The possibility to applying simulated series for compile scenario forecasting river runoff Saken K. Davletgaliev1 · Sayat K. Alimkulov2 · Elmira K. Talipova1 Received: 15 January 2019 / Accepted: 10 August 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The work shows the possibility of jointed simulation of monthly runoff, precipitation and air temperature with the method of canonical expansion. The method allows to save average runoff values, variability indexes and asymmetry coefficients as well as autocorrelation and intercorrelation coefficients. Simulated values of flow-forming factors can be used to compile scenario forecasts of monthly runoff hydrographs based on meteorological factors. Keywords Monthly runoff · Runoff hydrograph · Precipitation · Temperature · Statistical modeling · Canonical expansion · Coordinate functions · Stochastic coefficients · Dispersion · Correlation matrix · Streamflow formation factors · Characteristics of streamflow formation factors · Meteorological factors
Introduction The problem of ultra-long-term forecasting of river flow and the level of lakes with the development of civilization is becoming more urgent, more difficult, and the contribution of forecasts to optimization and regulation of water management is estimated by damage or savings of hundreds of billions of dollars. The need for water resources forecasts for several years, a decade and a hundred years is extremely high. However, at present in the world there is no uniform methodology for forecasting water resources with a lead time of 1–5 years or more. For this reason, there are no methodologies recommended for use in forecasts. Unfortunately, the current level of development of science does not yet allow developing a reliable forecast of the river flow; one can only speak of
* Elmira K. Talipova [email protected] Saken K. Davletgaliev [email protected] Sayat K. Alimkulov [email protected] 1
Al‑Farabi, Kazakh National University (KazNU), 71 al‑Farabi Ave., Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Institute of Geography, Kabanbai batyr/Pushkin st. 67/99, Almaty 050010, Kazakhstan
2
possible “scenarios” or “scenario forecast” (Shiklomanov 2008). Currently, methods based on solar-terrestrial connections, probabilistic and statistical methods, methods based on cyclic properties of river water fluctuations, water-balance methods, taking into account the relationships of various types of economic activity to climate and runoff, as well as methods based on the forecast of meteorological parameters, can be used in the preparation of ultra-long-term forecasts of annual flow. Methods based on the use of solar-terrestrial interactions are considered in the monograph of Leonov (Leonov 2010), which lists six channels of impact on climate and water resources. The considered «channels» of the influence of astro-cosmic and economic factors on the Earth’s hydrological processes operate both in a multi-time isolated mode and in a joint one-time mode, which complicates the a
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