Forecasting the Yellow River runoff based on functional data analysis methods
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Forecasting the Yellow River runoff based on functional data analysis methods Ting Wang1 · Yingchun Zhou1 Received: 7 October 2019 / Revised: 13 September 2020 / Accepted: 28 September 2020 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study examines the runoff prediction of each hydrometric station and each month in the mainstream of the Yellow River in China. From the perspective of functional data, the monthly runoff of each hydrometric station can be regarded as a function of both time and space. A sequence of such functions is formed by collecting the data over the years. We propose a new approach by combining the two-dimensional functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and time series analysis methods to predict the runoff. In the simulation, we compared the proposed method with two others: one based on one-dimensional FPCA and the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method. The method combining standard two-dimensional FPCA and time series analysis outperforms others in most cases, and is used to predict the runoff of each hydrometric station and each month in the Yellow River in 2018. Keywords One-dimensional functional principal component analysis · SARIMA · Two-dimensional functional principal component analysis · Yellow River runoff
1 Introduction Water is the origin of all life on earth. In China, although the total amount of fresh water resource is large, per capita possession is small, and the spatial distribution of water resources is very uneven, which does not match the layout of other resources. Furthermore, China’s hydrometric information is very complicated. So far, high-accuracy prediction in the hydrometric field in China is still difficult to achieve.
Handling Editor: Pierre Dutilleul.
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Yingchun Zhou [email protected] Key Laboratory of Advanced Theory and Application in Statistics and Data Science-MOE, School of Statistics, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
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Environmental and Ecological Statistics
Runoff refers to the amount of water passing through a certain cross-section of a river in a certain period of time. It is an important hydrometric indicator. In the present study, the runoff value refers to the amount of water passing through the water section of a hydrometric station within a certain month. The change of runoff will not only affect the development and utilization of water resources and the sediment load of rivers Shi et al. (2017), but is also directly related to social ecological environment and economic development. Therefore, runoff prediction has always been an important issue in the field of hydrometric research. In addition, most of the medium- and longterm studies on runoff in China are concentrated on the Yangtze River Basin, but not on the Yellow River Basin. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the runoff of each hydrometric station on the Yellow River for each month. It is of great help to implement a water resources dispat
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