The potential learning effect of a MCDA approach on consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles
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The potential learning effect of a MCDA approach on consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles Gabriela D. Oliveira1,2,4
· Luis C. Dias2,3,4
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Despite efforts from governments to increase the diffusion of more sustainable vehicles, such as alternative fuel vehicles (AFV), the market penetration of these vehicles has been difficult. Eliciting consumer preferences may provide valuable information on how to increase AFV diffusion. Since these are unfamiliar and complex products for most consumers, preferences are usually learnt during the process of elicitation. Preference learning is dependent on several factors, which include the type of elicitation task and its complexity. In this work, a stated preference survey was designed to analyze the potential impact of more complex elicitation tasks, multiattribute utility theory approach (MAUT), on the learning of preferences elicited through a traditional approach, choice-based conjoint analysis (CBC). The survey comprised two CBC sets of questions, one asked before and another asked after the MAUT. As a result three rankings of the vehicles set were obtained for each consumer, one derived from the initial set of CBC answers, a second one derived from the elicited MAUT model, and a third one derived from the second set of CBC answers. According to the results, there are significant differences from the first to the third ranking, possibly due to learning effects. Differences between the CBC-derived rankings were analyzed to assess if they were aligned with the MAUT model. Keywords Conjoint analysis · Multicriteria decision analysis · Preference learning · Elicitation task · Alternative fuel vehicles
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Gabriela D. Oliveira [email protected]
1
DEM – Mechanic Engineering Department, University of Coimbra, Pólo II da Universidade de Coimbra, Rua Luís Reis Santos, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal
2
CeBER, University of Coimbra, Av. Dias da Silva 165, 3004-512 Coimbra, Portugal
3
Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Av. Dias da Silva 165, 3004-512 Coimbra, Portugal
4
INESCC - Institute for Systems Engineering and Computers at Coimbra, Rua Sílvio Lima, Pólo II, 3030-290 Coimbra, Portugal
123
Annals of Operations Research
1 Introduction Over the last two decades several alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) have been introduced in the market as a potential answer to the road transportation problems of oil dependency and release of harmful emissions. However, the successful dissemination of these potentially more sustainable technologies in the markets depends on consumers tastes and the characteristics valued by them when choosing a vehicle, i.e. it depends on consumer preferences (Verlegh and Steenkamp 1999). Knowing these preferences is essential to make choices about the attributes of future vehicles (Hidrue et al. 2011), as well as to forecast AFV penetration in the markets and to forecast the effects of different policies (Oliveira et al. 2019). Understanding consumer preferences i
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