The role of advanced end-use technologies in long-term climate change mitigation: the interlinkage between primary bioen
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The role of advanced end-use technologies in long-term climate change mitigation: the interlinkage between primary bioenergy and energy end-use Junichi Tsutsui 1
2
1
& Hiromi Yamamoto & Shogo Sakamoto & Masahiro Sugiyama
3
Received: 1 May 2018 / Accepted: 17 August 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
The role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energyeconomic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification under a wide range of carbon price trajectories, which start at 1–690 USD/tCO2 in 2030, increase at 4.5%/year, and level off in 2100. This scenario design allows close examination of energy, economic, and environmental implications of different levels of policy stringency and carbon budgets. While improving end-use efficiencies consistently decrease policy costs for a wide range of carbon budgets, the value of BECCS availability in terms of cost reduction is crucial only in a limited range toward lower budgets. Constraints on BECCS, including those indirectly imposed by the limited bioenergy supply, also tend to narrow the lower range of attainable budget levels, indicating technological and economic challenges, although they may have an impact on reducing the total budget including land-use emissions. Overall, the advanced end-use efficiency has a significant effect on the required level of policy stringency for a given climate goal, so that it can compensate for the biomass constraints. This article is part of the Special Issue on "Assessing Large-scale Global Bioenergy Deployment for Managing Climate Change (EMF-33)" edited by Steven Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Shinichiro Fuminori, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, and Marshall Wise. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002839-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Junichi Tsutsui [email protected]
1
Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan
2
Energy Innovation Center, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Yokosuka, Japan
3
Institute for Future Initiatives, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Climatic Change
Keywords BET-GLUE . Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage . Advanced end-use technologies
1 Introduction The present study investigates the role of advanced end-use technologies (AETs) in long-term climate mitigation by using an integrated assessment model (IAM), named BET (Yamamoto et al. 2014), as one of the specific studies conducted in the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd model comparison exercise (EMF-33, Bauer et al. 2018). The EMF-33 deals with various issues of large-scale global bioenergy deployment for achieving
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