The role of temperature on the global spread of COVID-19 and urgent solutions
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ORIGINAL PAPER
The role of temperature on the global spread of COVID‑19 and urgent solutions I. Roy1 Received: 22 June 2020 / Revised: 6 October 2020 / Accepted: 19 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract This study explored whether the global temperature had any role in the spread and vulnerability to COVID-19 and how that knowledge can be used to arrest the fast-spreading disease. It highlighted that for transmitting the virus, global temperature played an important role and a moderately cool environment was the most favourable state. The risk from the virus was reduced significantly for warm places and countries. Based on the temperature of March and April, various degrees of vulnerability were identified and countries were specified. The maximum reported case, as well as death, was noted when the temperature was in the range of around 275 °K (2 °C) to 290 °K (17 °C). Countries like the USA, UK, Italy and Spain belonged to this category. The vulnerability was moderate when the temperature was less than around 275 °K (2 °C), e.g. Russia, parts of Canada and a few Scandinavian countries. For temperature 300 °K (27 °C) and above, a significantly lesser degree of vulnerability was noted. Countries from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, South-East Asia, the African continent and Australia fell in that category. This work discussed that based on the variability of temperature, countries can switch from one vulnerability state to another. That influence of temperature on the virus and results of previous clinical trials with similar viruses provided a useful insight that regulating the level of temperature can offer remarkable results to arrest and stop the outbreak. Based on that knowledge, some urgent and simple solutions are proposed, which are practically without side effects and very cost-effective too. Keywords Coronavirus · COVID-19 · Seasonality · Temperature · Urgent Solutions
Introduction The recent pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) and its rapid spread worldwide (JHUM 2020; ECDC 2020a) brought the whole human civilization to a standstill. The responsible virus for the disease is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (WHO 2020). Detailed analysis of the characteristics of the virus and the nature of the disease is outlined in current research (Gorbalenya et al. 2020; Chen and Li 2020).
Editorial responsibility: Samareh Mirkia. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02991-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * I. Roy [email protected] 1
University College London (UCL), IRDR, London, UK
The disease first originated in the Wuhan Province of China. The case of hospital admission was first reported on 12 December 2019, and since then, till 15 March there were 80,995 reported cases in China with 3203 confirmed deaths (ECDC 2020a). Various analyses on the COVID-19 spread in China were detailed in a recent study (Li et al. 2020). That figure
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