A global analysis on the effect of temperature, socio-economic and environmental factors on the spread and mortality rat
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A global analysis on the effect of temperature, socio‑economic and environmental factors on the spread and mortality rate of the COVID‑19 pandemic Mizanur Rahman1 · Mahmuda Islam1 · Mehedi Hasan Shimanto1 · Jannatul Ferdous1 · Abdullah Al‑Nur Shanto Rahman1 · Pabitra Singha Sagor1 · Tahasina Chowdhury1 Received: 11 July 2020 / Accepted: 30 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and diurnal temperature variation (difference between daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperature) and other environmental and socioeconomic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration since the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19 at the global scale. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, diurnal temperature variation was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the lowand middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed factor in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggests that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies, but in low- and middle-income countries, high diurnal temperature variation may increase the mortality risk. Keywords Temperature · Socio-economic and environmental factors · COVID-19 pandemic · Mortality · Partial correlation analysis · Mixed effect modelling
* Mizanur Rahman mizan‑[email protected] 1
Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
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1 Introduction COVID-19 has become a global concern since the pandemic situation caused by COVID19 posed an unprecedented threat to the world. The pandemic has already brought changes in social, economic, political, cultural and environmental aspects around the world. COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus “Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” (Gorbalenya et al. 2020; Shereen et al. 2020). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the first case of COVID-19 has been reported in December 2019. As shown by the COVID-19 dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, COVID-19 caused 346,700 death with a total of 5,519,878 confirmed cases (as of 26th May 2020, 19.00 GMT+6.00) (Dong et al. 2020). With a start from China, COVID-19 outbreak has been o
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