The sensitivity of the SPEI to potential evapotranspiration and precipitation at multiple timescales on the Huang-Huai-H
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ORIGINAL PAPER
The sensitivity of the SPEI to potential evapotranspiration and precipitation at multiple timescales on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China Weijiao Wang 1,2 & Bin Guo 1,2
3
4
& Yuqing Zhang & Liguo Zhang & Min Ji
1,2
& Ying Xu
1,2
5
& Xuliang Zhang & Yanwei Zhang
6
Received: 12 May 2020 / Accepted: 15 September 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is considered appropriate for drought assessment. In this study, changes in drought characteristics and the sensitivity of SPEI to variations in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation (P) were detected at different timescales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China from 1901–2015. The results showed that obvious wetting trends were found in this plain and higher SPEI values that were mostly located in the north. Additionally, the SPEI values showed a wetting trend across 83.4%, 99.6%, 98.6%, and 86.6% of the plain at the 1-month (SPEI-01), 3-month (SPEI03), 6-month (SPEI-06), and 12-month (SPEI-12) timescales, respectively. Obviously, the SPEI displayed a stronger correlation with P than the PET, which was primarily due to the complicated SPEI calculation process. These findings provide critical guidance for sustainable ecological development with the use of the SPEI to detect the impacts of climate factors on drought.
1 Introduction The global mean surface temperature has increased by 0.85 °C from 1880 to 2012 (IPCC 2013). Under the background of global warming, the occurrence of extreme events has increased (Chen et al. 2017; Guo et al. 2016; Peña-Gallardo et al. 2018). As one of the most damaging and widespread extreme events, drought negatively affects water resources, ecosystems, agricultural production, and sustainable socioeconomic development (Deng and Chen 2016; Fu et al.
* Bin Guo [email protected] 1
Key Laboratory of Geomatics and Digital Technology of Shandong Province, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
2
College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
3
School of Urban and Environmental Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, China
4
Shandong Provincial Institute of Land Surveying and Mapping, Jinan 250102, China
5
School of Tourism and Geography Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
6
Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan 250002, China
2019; Wang et al. 2019). Drought is a complicated phenomenon influenced by the integrated effects of multiple factors (Guo et al. 2018). The droughts have raised enormous concern regarding the occurrence, magnitude, and impacts of drought (Zhang et al. 2017). Numerous specialized drought indices have been proposed and applied for drought monitoring and assessment, e.g., the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) (Palmer 1965), the standard precipitation index (SPI) (McKee et al. 1993), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration inde
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