Time-dependent reliability analysis through projection outline-based adaptive Kriging
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RESEARCH PAPER
Time-dependent reliability analysis through projection outline-based adaptive Kriging Dapeng Wang 1 & Chen Jiang 1 & Haobo Qiu 1 & Jinhao Zhang 1 & Liang Gao 1 Received: 28 April 2019 / Revised: 17 August 2019 / Accepted: 9 October 2019 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Time-dependent reliability analysis (TRA) has drawn much attention due to its ability in measuring the probability that a system or component keeps safe in the full life cycle. Since it is difficult to efficiently obtain accurate results for TRA problems with expensive simulation demand, many surrogate model-based methods have been proposed to handle this challenge. Moreover, when both random and interval uncertainties are included in these TRA problems simultaneously, the analysis process will be more complicated. In this paper, two methods based on projection outline adaptive Kriging (POK) are proposed to handle TRA and TRA with mixed interval uncertainties (iTRA), respectively. Firstly, POK-TRA method is put forward for the TRA problems with different stochastic processes. Different from current TRA methods, POK-TRA regards the time parameter as a special interval variable, which converts TRA problem into a special hybrid reliability analysis (HRA) problem with one interval variable. Based on the concept of projection outline as well as a correlation condition, an efficient sampling strategy is proposed to refine the Kriging model adaptively. Secondly, POK-TRA is extended to the time-dependent reliability analysis including both random and interval variables (POK-iTRA). By inheriting the processing strategy of time parameter and stochastic processes, the iTRA problem is converted into the HRA problem with multiple interval variables. Finally, four cases are used to show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. Keywords Time-dependent reliability analysis . Kriging model . Projection outline . Hybrid variables
1 Introduction With the increasing demand for product quality, reliability analysis has become an essential step during the product design process (Aoues and Chateauneuf 2010; Jiang et al. 2019a; Keshtegar and Hao 2018; Meng and Keshtegar 2019). Many advanced reliability analysis models and updating strategies (Jiang et al. 2017; Jiang et al. 2019b; Meng et al. 2019; Meng et al. 2018; Xiaoke et al. 2019; Yang et al. 2019; Xiao et al. 2018; Xiao et al. 2019) have been proposed for time-independent reliability analysis. However,
Responsible Editor: Byeng D Youn * Haobo Qiu [email protected] 1
State Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology, School of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 430074 Wuhan, People’s Republic of China
with the time-dependent uncertainties which are caused by material degradation, random loads or other dynamic characteristics (Jiang et al. 2014; Wang et al. 2019, 2018; Zhang et al. 2017) are gradually taken into consideration in recent years; time-dependent reliability analysis (TRA) h
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